Market resolves YES if at the beginning of 2026, a new entry has been added to the "major wars" category of the Wikipedia list of ongoing armed conflicts.
This does not need to be an entirely new war. If a war that is already part of the overall list escalates to be included in the "major wars" category, the market resolves as YES. Similarly, if an already ongoing war were to be split into two different conflicts which are then included in the list.
tl;dr: The only criteria for this market to resolve yes is whether a conflict joins the "major wars" category that is not currently listed there.
The market will be resolved once the numbers for 2025 are complete.
Current list:
1,000
3.00Some guidance for traders:
Over the last 11 years, at least one new major war has been added to the list in 7 of them. In the past 4 years, at least one new major war has been added during each of them.
2024: 1
2023: 3
2022: 2
2021: 1
2020: 0
2019: 0
2018: 1
2017: 0
2016: 1
2015: 0
2014: 1