Will New York City government have a 1975 style financial crisis, threat of bankruptcy, before the end of 2028?

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Update 2025-07-31 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has pointed to a podcast episode about the 1975 NYC financial crisis as a reference for what constitutes a "1975 style" event. Key features highlighted from that crisis include:
- Being saturated in debt
- A crash in the municipal bond market
- Receiving a federal bailout

Creator comment: any one of the above events will settle the question as YES.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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https://a.co/d/cP8CeXG

Drop Dead: How a Coterie of Corrupt Politicians, Bankers, Lawyers, Spinmeisters, and Mobsters Bankrupted New York, Got Bailed Out, Blamed the ... as Usual (And It Might Be Happening Again) Hardcover – April 29, 2025

https://pca.st/episode/523d5775-ed0c-47a0-a7cf-433fdc930071

Today's guest is Richard E. Farley, author of Drop Dead, a history of how the richest city in America got addicted to spending, saturated in debt, and crashed the municipal bond market—and then managed to get a federal bailout in the nick of time.

https://nypost.com/2025/06/27/business/why-buying-nyc-bonds-could-pay-off-even-if-zohran-mamdani-becomes-mayor/?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=nypost

Something I didn’t know before I created this market. Bond holders get paid first.

https://www.city-journal.org/article/new-york-fiscal-crisis-1970s-migrants-welfare-costs?utm_source=virtuous&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=cjdaily&vcrmeid=D1QSfbvmrUi8YjPMui8NCg&vcrmiid=zVSxHuH5cES4YsFcziOJWw

The Fading Lessons of New York’s Fiscal Crisis

From exploding welfare costs to billions spent on migrants to soaring compensation, politicians are repeating the mistakes of the 1970s.

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