Same as this market but closes and resolves end of 2024
https://manifold.markets/journcy/will-this-yudkowsky-tweet-hold-up
"This market resolves YES if at close (end of **2024**) my subjective perception is that this was a good take (https://twitter.com/ESYudkowsky/status/1563282607315382273) --e.g., AI-generated video really is that good--and NO if it seems like Eliezer was importantly wrong about something, e.g., AI-generated video still sucks, or still couldn't be the cause for serious doubt about whether some random moth footage was made with a camera or not."
1,000
3.00@Manifold there's talk in teh moderators chat about N/A'ing this market if the creator does not respond.
jim humbly requests that the creator is given several months opportunity to come back and resolve this market. An N/A resolution should not be rushed into!
@jim Yeah, I'm really not a fan of the push for quick resolutions. Reading the "why haven't mods resolved yet?" comments sometimes feels like watching a retiree shake a slot machine. I guess gambling addictions are a good business model, but a norm of patience probably makes for a more pleasant community.
@placebo_username Give me a break. That’s quite a stretch for people simply wanting a timely answer. I could care less but there is no reason to go all holier than thou with your comment.
@jim I'm not in a rush for a resolution, and waiting a week or two seems fine. But the state of the art is advancing quickly, and 'several months' might bias towards a YES resolution, as by then the answer might very much be unarguably YES. The question is what it looks like NOW, and that's hard to judge from the future.
I'm just bumping @Duncn's comment because it's now been 17 days, more than a week or two. Locking up traders' mana and reduced ability to judge the state of affairs on Dec 31 are significant downsides to waiting.
@Duncn I have not yet had this experience. Every AI video I have come across I have easily identified as AI within the first few seconds of "what am I looking at?"
@TiredCliche How could you possibly know that? How do you know that every video you've seen that was 'real' wasn't generated by AI?
Personally, I think the tweet clearly holds up. But after going in with a few thousand mana, I've pulled out of this market completely. It seems like the primary disagreement is not about the state of AI video generation but rather about how to interpret the resolution criteria. Some people are gonna get really mad, one way or the other.
@EMcNeill exactly! The market is still at ~50% despite agreement on most of the underlying facts. So I've put up YES limit orders for anyone who wants to divest YES or invest NO before the market ends in ~3 hours. 4000 @ 51%, 4000 @ 46%, 8000 @ 41%
@bil yud's tweet specifically said "anytime you see a video" - so if the vid being over 1 minute long is a DEAD giveaway that it wasn't fully made by ai, it doesn't hold up yet imo. twitter, youtube, tiktok all display vid length as soon as you start watching
@bil it's multiple short clips though. Can just concatenate 15 different AI generated videos into one
@bil but yeah, some nuance here given that he does refer to "15 different..." as part of the prompt in the tweet
@bil I think even for a short video, veo2 can't get moth flapping wings anything close to what the real video looks like. We're just in the honeymoon period of a new model being announced and people's eyes haven't adjusted yet to seeing all the failure modes
@bil I also don't think the prompt he wrote is necessarily the best description of that video either. Doing the inverse operation / backtranslation is unlikely to reproduce something that matches the original even with a cracked generative model.
@MalachiteEagle Worrying about the exact wording of the prompt is again taking the tweet too literally. The question is whether underlying "take" was "good", not whether the tweet is literally true.
Imagine a world in which 90% of trending videos are AI-generated, but they're all 15 seconds long - would you really argue for a NO resolution in that case?
@placebo_username yeah, i agree that the actual prompt wording doesn't matter. my interpretation of the underlying take is basically "reasonably widespread AI is capable of generating videos of similar beauty, complexity, and fidelity to that moth video," and being able to handle 15 different moth species in one prompt is way cooler than having to stitch 15 vids yourself!
@MalachiteEagle That's a strong argument for a YES resolution. 'You have to learn to see the failure modes' is the same as saying it's not easy to recognize if it's AI.
@Duncn From a purely aesthetic pov, I think the moth video looks a lot nicer than any realistic AI video I've seen. The most coherent AI vids are amalgamations of 1 million stock footage clips and it shows imo. Could be an unpopular opinion but just throwing in my vote here
Imagine a world in which 90% of trending videos are AI-generated, but they're all 15 seconds long - would you really argue for a NO resolution in that case?
in the meantime, in this world we live in, where about 0% of trending videos are AI generated and of those that are most are less than 15 seconds long, you somehow are advocating for YES
@Odoacre It is a hypothetical arguing that neither the length nor the ability to prompt for several short videos in one go actually matter much here, the post does not require 15 second long videos.
@Aleph it seems to be arguing that "trending" matters though? And you are also implicitly saying that length does matter, but lis subordinate to "trending"