Clarifying questions:

1. What if it's a fixed short route that is technically public roads but involves, say, beacons or human monitors checking for pedestrians or other ways in which, in spirit, it's essentially a testing environment?

2. What if it's like bus routes, where you can't choose an arbitrary destination, even within a fixed geographical area?

3. Can we identify a threshold below which the geographical area that the trial is limited to is too small to count as more than a testing environment?

(I'm asking these because I'm worried about the scenario where Elon Musk twists the definition of public launch as far as necessary to be able to say that it happened. Like how he maybe/sorta got Grok 3 to technically, by some benchmarks, with lots of fudging, count as the "most powerful AI in the world" for 3-10 days before Claude Sonnet 3.7 and GPT-4.5 came out. I guess Grok 3 is still tied for first on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard -- I might be being harsh here. We'll see. That's why we have these markets!)

@brianwang I thought you might be interested in this market that resolves sooner than other Tesla markets. I placed a 3k limit order.

@WrongoPhD thanks

I already have 150 spent on this exact market. I will add some more over the next months

This is a little mean but maybe also kind of fair:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ufbxvRo2rnY

The video is now 2 years old and he has kept right on doing this. FSD keeps improving but is still SAE level 2. I guess he'll be right eventually? But probably only after he's forced to admit how right Waymo has been all along. https://www.understandingai.org/p/teslas-robotaxi-strategy-looks-a

The definition of "full self-driving" and what constitutes "unsupervised" operation may affect resolution

@GordanKnott Please define "full self-driving" and what constitutes "unsupervised" operation.

I propose going with the existing definition of SAE Level 4.

@HankyUSA ok

@GordanKnott The definition of no human driver is clear. The Sawyer merritt and Tesla statements are what they are promising in June. If they launch a paid service without the supervised driver then that counts. Tesla did not talk about SAE Level 4 so that would have nothing to do with Tesla meeting their stated goal.

It should not mess with the prediction but having an extra meaningless term separates from the Tesla statements.

SAE Level 4 is defined as high driving automation where the vehicle can perform all driving tasks within specific conditions without human intervention2. Key aspects of Level 4 automation include:

1. The system can operate without human oversight within its operational design domain (ODD).

2. The vehicle can handle fallback situations without requiring human intervention.

3. It's limited to specific conditions, such as certain geographic areas or driving scenarios.

Musk's description of "Unsupervised FSD" with "No one in the car" suggests a system that doesn't require human presence or intervention, which is consistent with Level 4 capabilities. The limitation to Austin, Texas, also aligns with the geographically restricted nature of Level 4 system

@brianwang I avoid relying on Tesla for clear definitions since they started misleading people with the term "full self driving".

Regardless, the question is distinct from Tesla's promises. For example, I would not be surprised if Elon Musk and friends claimed mission accomplished even if the service is restricted to a closed testing environment or limited beta program. However, in such a situation this question would resolve NO.

The market will resolve NO if: [...] The service launches but is restricted to a closed testing environment or limited beta program

@HankyUSA They are already doing a mostly closed environment with 1500 cars per day. That is the 1.2 mile drive from Fremont factory to Loading dock parking. It is not fully closed in that there are other cars, forklifts and workers. they are doing public parking areas and short range up to 80 meter drives (actual smart summon). They have supervised testing on public roads in California and Texas.

@brianwang not a paid service?