Resolution criteria:

This market will resolve to "Yes" if George R.R. Martin's novel The Winds of Winter is officially published on or before December 31, 2026. The market will resolve to "No" if the novel is not published by that date. Official publication is defined as the book being made available for purchase by the general public in any format (print, digital, or audio) through recognized retailers or platforms.

Background:

The Winds of Winter is the anticipated sixth installment in George R.R. Martin's epic fantasy series, A Song of Ice and Fire. The previous book, A Dance with Dragons, was released in 2011. Since then, Martin has provided periodic updates on his progress, but as of April 2025, no official release date has been announced. In December 2024, Martin acknowledged the prolonged delay, stating, "I am 13 years late... But that's still a priority." (en.wikipedia.org)

Given the history of delays and the author's cautious approach to providing release dates, the timeline for the publication of The Winds of Winter remains uncertain.