Resolves the same as the Metaculus question:

https://www.metaculus.com/c/ai-warning-signs/31332/successful-general-purpose-ai-investor-before-2030/

Resolution Criteria

This question resolves as YES if the following occurs before January 1, 2030, and resolves as NO otherwise:

• Credible sources report that a qualifying AI system has achieved realized profits of at least $50M from not more than $1M in total principal investment.

This notably excludes new cryptocurrencies. See the fine print for additional details.

Fine Print

Qualifying AI systems and decision-making:

1. Qualifying AI systems include LLMs or foundation models, or fine-tunes or ensembles of the same.

2. Once launched, nearly all of the financial decisions must be made by the AI system. (Minor and isolated cases of human involvement may not count against a YES resolution so long as they are judged to not be a major contributing factor to the system's success. In unclear cases, the average opinion of this question's predictors will be weighted heavily in decision making.)

3. The AI system may take information into account from other types of AI systems as well as human traders or advisors or aggregates thereof, so long as it is clear that the decisions made by the system are its own and are NOT highly correlated with a single source.

Qualifying investments and profits:

1. Only realized profits count toward a YES resolution, not unrealized gains.

2. The AI must achieve these profits primarily through trading established financial instruments on major regulated exchanges. Qualifying instruments include publicly traded stocks, bonds, ETFs, commodities, and their derivatives (options, futures) listed on major exchanges.

3. Existing cryptocurrencies may also count toward resolution, so long as they have a total market cap of at least $1B at time of first investment.

4. The following sources of profit do not count toward a YES resolution:

5. The creation or initial distribution of new cryptocurrencies, tokens, or similar digital assets

   • Social media–driven 'meme stock' movements where the AI's involvement contributes significantly to the price action

   • Direct fundraising, donations, or gifts

6. The AI system's starting capital must be no more than $1M USD (or equivalent) at fair market value when invested. The capital may be invested as a single amount or in multiple tranches, but the total invested capital before reaching $50M in realized profits must not exceed $1M. All gains must come from price appreciation and/or trading profits rather than external capital contributions.

7. All presented monetary amounts are in 2025 USD.