Current best estimate is ~0.6 new users per second, which means bluesky is trending to ~39m by September 1st and would need to significantly accelerate to hit 50m by then. The usage trends seem to be flattening out after a long post-election decline.

@DanRobinson Source?

@HamishTodd interpolation based on the same dataset used for resolution: https://bsky-users.theo.io/

To hit 50m by September, bluesky needs to add about 1.15 new users per second.

@DanRobinson there’s this one too:

https://bcounter.nat.vg/

It was growing at 2.0 when I took the screenshot:

@cosmicmiskatonic if this rate continues it will blow past 50 million. Why did the rate increase though?

@Shai might be because Facebook have loudly declared that they also intend to really suck hence forth - threads exodus joining the twitter exodus?

@johnwhiles Liberals are leaving facebook like what happened with twitter after the election?

@Shai that's my hypothesis based on 0 research, and having not asked any users of facebook or threads

I don't think more than 20% of their current user growth is from users moving from threads to bluesky but idk either

@Bayesian yeah - I mean, do you know anyone who posts things on threads? Lol.

Could also just be that the more people move to bluesky the less worthwhile twitter becomes[^1]. If that's the case we could see the rate of change increase for a while longer and then tail off once twitter is fully equivalent to truth social.

[^1]: https://brucefwebster.com/2008/04/11/the-wetware-crisis-the-dead-sea-effect/

@Shai I'm guessing it's because inauguration day is nearing + Europeans. Not sure though. This doesn't change my odds much if its mostly due to that

@Shai maybe due to Meta’s announcement regarding Communuty Notes.

@Bayesian last time I looked at that site growth was around 0.79. Something happened, and my current hypothesis is Meta’s change from centralised to decentralised moderation using Community Notes.

Rather surprised at my own ability to choose a number such that this became an interesting question!

@HamishTodd It's similar to the number of registered Democrats, so fits nicely.