Resolves to winner of 2024/2025 MVP (not 2023/2024 MVP)
1,000
3.00
@benshindel wrong.
The stats aren't correctly accounting for defense and how Jokic's stats are in the context of a defense that gives up 117 PPG (inflated) vs OKCs #1 defense (not inflated)
SGA is legit better than Jokic this year. That's why OKC could win 70 games.
Probably should win unanimously like Curry did in 2016 assuming the voters aren't blindly looking at stats like you 2.
@ChinmayTheMathGuy lol, OKC a) are not going to win 70 games b) even if they did, it would hardly be due to SGA's defensive impact c) have a monstrous defense in their starting line-up plus second unit. OTOH Denver are saddled with the corpses of Jamal Murray and MPJ who Jokic is having to carry on both ends. I'm open to the fact that Shai could win MVP, but that wasn't it
@benshindel all dumb reasons. Jokic is playing godly basketball and dragging his bum-ass team to a respectable record. If they're a top 4 seed he should absolutely be MVP again
a) on pace to win close to that
b) SGA is clearly a positive defender, their DPOY candidate Chet missed nearly the whole Year.
c) "corpses of" 2 currently top 50 players Jamal and MPJ.
OKC also has 2 top 50 players - JDub and Chet/iHart (both missed many games)
Why does Denver not having a backup center make Jokic (on pace for 43 wins + 11 games missed ) the MVP over SGA (on pace for 68 wins - 0 games missed)?
It's clear you like Jokic more than SGA so it's hard to change your mind, but I follow the NBA closely and it's just objectively true that SGA is better this year (he's improved a lot, rapidly) even though Jokic was better in prior years.
SGA is straight up better than Jokic. You just need to realize it. The biggest blind spot you have is that Jokic's stats are "better" but that's because he plays more minutes (Nuggets are playing close games while OKC wins in 3Qs regularly).
"top 4 seed" as the criteria for Jokic but 65+ wins for SGA isn't enough for SGA lol.
@ChinmayTheMathGuy here's a reputable source (EPM) if you want stats
@ChinmayTheMathGuy @dlin007 guys don't get mad at me, lol. I'm saying those are why VOTERS are likely to pick SGA over Jokic, not why I would do so
@benshindel I'm simply predicting the MVP VOTE, not personally selecting who is the most valuable player (I would unironically pick Wemby this year if I could vote)
@benshindel yeah you and David think Jokic > SGA and SGA is favored due to "pity".
But I'm saying SGA is actually just better than Jokic and with the team being that much better too.
He's should be 90% (like 2016 Curry) if the Jokic > SGA argument wasn't as potent as it currently is with people not realizing that Jokic's counting stats are inflated massively relative to SGA with the 13.2 pt difference in opponent PPG being quickly dismissed as 100% attributable to the 2nd units (it's not, SGA is a better defender than Jokic by a solid margin)
@ChinmayTheMathGuy I don't think that, lol. I never said that. David asked "Why is Jokic at 30%" and I said "voter fatigue, record, and Shai's recent finishes in MVP voting". Those are the predominant reasons why the actual MVP voters, not EPM nerds, will select Shai this year, regardless of who is actually statistically the more valuable player.
@ChinmayTheMathGuy
> SGA is straight up better than Jokic. You just need to realize it. The biggest blind spot you have is that Jokic's stats are "better" but that's because he plays more minutes
lol, so you're a fake math guy on top of not knowing ball. i don't even feel the need to continue here anymore
@benshindel lol yeah, i was just pointing out that the voters would be dumb to do that. Jokic's season is truly exceptional, even compared to his absurd standards
@benshindel cursory look and it is a dumb metric. look at these defensive numbers. it's quite likely it's just overrating steals and blocks given it thinks Wagner and Sabonis have a top 5% defensive impact
@benshindel I don't disagree with you on that. I'm not an EPM nerd btw. Just referenced cause I thought you might be one.
We both agree SGA is favored but from different perspectives, I think the true odds are 90/10 but it becomes 65/35 accounting for the pro-Jokic bias.
You and David likely think it's 70/30 Jokic and the pro-SGA bias (voter fatigue, record, pity) is why it's 65/35.
I'm not an EPM fan by any means, just brought it up since it is well respected by NBA fans.
You can't just easily dismiss it as overrating steals and blocks just since Franz and Sabonis (only 0.7 stl, 0.5 blk actually hurts your case) are 92nd percentile (what's the evidence they shouldn't be?). they use tracking stats like deflections and match up data (who defended who, what %, etc.)
and for example Ausar Thompson was considered a better defender than SGA last year by EPM and other defenders without eye popping defensive stats were rated highly
This NBA player ranking is more in line with what I think:
https://x.com/sportsandmath1/status/1876064591408730174?s=46
For reference they had Jokic clearly first a couple months ago but SGA has been that good this year.
https://x.com/sportsandmath1/status/1858963030572195903?s=46
@ChinmayTheMathGuy Wagner and Sabonis are bad to terrible defenders, and any metric that thinks otherwise can be dismissed almost out of hand. I mean, the same metric thinks Luka, Tatum and Giannis have similar defensive impact. Come on.
Final question - if SGA and Jokic swapped teams, how would the teams do?
other regular season prop bets: https://manifold.markets/dlin007/20242025-nba-regular-season-prop-be