Was Oumuamua created by intelligent beings?
10
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2050
4%
chance

Resolves whenever someone gets around to looking at it close-up, or conclusive evidence is acquired some other way.

"Created" must be pretty directly. If our universe is a simulation created by intelligent beings, but Oumuamua was made by natural processes within the simulation, resolves NO.

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Hmm, how would this resolve if we never get around to looking at 'Oumuamua, but we find other objects that are revealed to be technosignatures with similar properties?

@bens because I highly doubt we'll ever get around to looking at it close-up: https://manifold.markets/JamesSully/will-a-mission-intending-to-interce

@bens If we survive the transition to AGI I'm pretty sure someone would do it eventually

@bens

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