Will a parrot explain the risk from AI before 2026?
➕
Plus
15
Ṁ1653
2026
10%
chance

This resolves YES if I'm shown a video of (or see in person) a parrot explaining that AI capabilities research is dangerous.

Edit: A REAL PARROT GUYS

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
Sort by:

Do stochastic parrots count?

@wadimiusz No, a real parrot.

@IsaacKing Presumably an AI generated video of a parrot counts?

@EliTyre No, it must be a real parrot.

@IsaacKing Lol. What even is this question then? What promoted you to post this?

predictedNO

@EliTyre The AI risk skeptics keep comparing LLMs to parrots, so if even the parrots find AI concerning, I imagine that must be enough to win the skeptics over.

@IsaacKing a parrot parroting about the risk of AI does not mean the parrot understands what it’s saying, nor is it showing concern about AI.

© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules