"Initial puzzle width" is the number of the puzzles open to solvers at the beginning of the Hunt. This market will resolve to 5 times that value; for example, if there are five puzzles open initially, this will resolve to 25%.

Clarifications:

• A puzzle is generally something that has an answer submission box. This will include metapuzzles if they're part of the initial unlock.

• If technical issues cause the first set of puzzles to be distributed in an unplanned or ad hoc fashion (as happened in 2024), that will count as the first release for this question.

• If more than 20 puzzles are included in the initial release, this will resolve to 100% (YES).

• I'll close this market around kickoff (January 17, noon MIT time/EST), before puzzles are released.

• Update 2025-17-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Number of puzzles: 11

  • Number of keys: 9

  • Initial puzzle width is counted as 9 (45%)