
What conspiracy theories will be proven correct by 2100. The conspiracy theory must have been true in 2024 so if the US government gets aliens after 2024 but didn't have them before it doesn't count. Please add your own conspiracy theories. I will be lenient in what is considered a conspiracy theory. If something is widely considered to be true in 2100 it will count as a yes resolution but to resolve beforehand it must be definitively proven and verified by multiple news sources. anything not proven true by 2100 will resolve no. Feel free to ask clarifying questions. In will not bet on this market in case of controversy
@PhilosophyBear what's your reasoning for it being so low given that he's read the report and the report repeatedly mentions him taking over?
https://manifold.markets/JamesF/what-conspiracy-theories-will-be-pr#ff0d1ghdgk5
@AmmonLam The scientific consensus is that humans didn't evolve from modern apes, rather humans and apes share a common ancestor. Of course, you could argue that that ancestor was itself an ape, albeit different from the apes of today. But creationists talk about how "scientists think we evolved from apes", they typically mean modern apes. Hence the creationist straw-man: "If humans evolved from monkeys, why are there still monkeys?"
So if option is an allusion to what creationists think evolutionists think, it should resolve YES. If it's pointing to a more scientifically literate conspiracy theory, that humans have no ape-like ancestors, it should resolve NO in 2100.
@Slackhammer does "wealthy elite" here mean billionaires or a lower bar? Must multiple of such elite be doing it together or does just one elite with a bunch of lower down people count? The Wikipedia plot summary doesn't seem to give much info about the people involved.
@TheAllMemeingEye it's not presently true, it was true at one point.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_South_Korean_political_scandal
@BlackCrusade ah cool, I somehow had never heard of this.
I only skimmed the article, but it looks like they proved that she used her influence to help her daughter cheat college entry and to edit the wording of some speeches, but they weren't able to prove the allegations that she was controlling wider policy, although it seems possible.
It also looks like it was mainly just one doing it (the father started the control before his daughter joined, but he died decades before Park became president), whereas a cabal is necessarily a group.
Shockingly close to counting though!
At least one UN recognised country is secretly controlled by a cabal following a religion shared by <5% of the country's population
Current most promising theory (trust me bro):
Israel is controlled by a secret cabal of Zapotec polytheists
Most other countries are controlled by a secret cabal of Nivkh animists
Russia is controlled by a secret cabal from the Jewish Autonomous Oblast. I am of course referring to the local Ukrainian minority (probably part of a neo-pagan cult or something), who with 0.9% of the population are about 50% more numerous than the namesake Jewish community that merely serve as a smokescreen
Zambia is just Zambia, by sheer force of will they have escaped control from any cabals, serving as the last shining beacon of hope for human freedom
@BoltonBailey is this option different in criteria from the existing "Smart devices are almost always listening to your private conversations" option?
@BoltonBailey cool thanks
@mods please either n/a or edit Bolton Bailey's option "Smartphones listen in on private conversations" since @JamesF is inactive
@BrunoParga Viagra is available generic now, so those fat profit margins are gone. If Big Pharma had a new boner pill, 2018 would have been the time to release it.
@GG hmmm, I mean arguably it would still be sane for them to have such rules if it wasn't happening, but I agree that such rules are perhaps getting disproportionate emphasis as a result
@TheAllMemeingEye The absurdity of calling yourself a 99% movement when you ban everyone who isn't a hardline anarchist.

@GG funnily enough I know an ancom who says that, after abolition of police, laws would be enforced by... community defense forces, which... errr... sound a tad like police

