Will there be at least one major U.S. blackout caused by a cyberattack by 2027? | Manifold

Will there be at least one major U.S. blackout caused by a cyberattack by 2027?

18

Ṁ6894

2027

32%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

By January 1st, 2027, will there be a power blackout with at least 10 million person-hours of disruption for U.S. residents (e.g. 1 million people for 10 hours), caused by a cyberwarfare attack? (AI enabled or otherwise)

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#️ Technology

Get

1,000

and

3.00

Sort by:

opened a Ṁ1,000 NO at 32% order

How will attribution be resolved? Must a U.S. federal agency attribute to the blackout to a cyberattack? What if only a foreign/nonstate actor claims responsibility but the U.S. claims a different cause of the blackout?

Related questions

Will the US experience a power grid failure before 2026?

Will a solar storm cause a >24-hour internet outage in any top 10 populous city by 2025 end?

Will a cyber attack by a top 10 GDP nation exposing mass private civilian data occur before 2028?

Will any U.S. State have more than 1,000,000 customers without power in 2025 again (after mid Jan power outages)?

[Metaculus] Will China carry out a cyberattack on Taiwan’s electricity infrastructure before 2030?

Will the USA experience power outages due to solar flares in 2025?

Large-scale internet blackout in G20 country by EOY2025?

Will any U.S. State have more than 2,000,000 customers without power in 2025?

Will a global* internet outage lasting more than 24 hours occur by the end of 2025?

Will any computer virus powered by AI cause large damages to digital infrastructure by 2027?

Related questions

Will the US experience a power grid failure before 2026?

Will the USA experience power outages due to solar flares in 2025?

Will a solar storm cause a >24-hour internet outage in any top 10 populous city by 2025 end?

Large-scale internet blackout in G20 country by EOY2025?

Will a cyber attack by a top 10 GDP nation exposing mass private civilian data occur before 2028?

Will any U.S. State have more than 2,000,000 customers without power in 2025?

Will any U.S. State have more than 1,000,000 customers without power in 2025 again (after mid Jan power outages)?

Will a global* internet outage lasting more than 24 hours occur by the end of 2025?

[Metaculus] Will China carry out a cyberattack on Taiwan’s electricity infrastructure before 2030?

Will any computer virus powered by AI cause large damages to digital infrastructure by 2027?

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules