Will the CDC announce that a "bird flu" (H5N1) epidemic exists anywhere in the United States in 2025?
➕
Plus
25
Ṁ3607
15 hours ago
72%
chance

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
Sort by:

@JimFix why did this resolve ‘Yes’?

@mods I believe this was resolved incorrectly (or at least immaturely).

@snazzlePop I didn't find any evidence of this in a cursory search, here's what I'll do:

  • For now I won't do anything

  • Let's give @JimFix 2 days to respond with explanation

  • If there is no response after 2 days, ping mods again to consider unresolving and reopening trading on the market

@Eliza @mods

It's been almost 3 full days, and @JimFix hasn't responded with any explanation.

@snazzlePop my reading of the situation is the resolution is factually incorrect unless someone can provide evidence that this happened.

I'm going to play it cautiously so for now I will unresolve to pull back the payouts and leave trading closed. If no one provides evidence of Yes within 2-3 days, ping mods again and I think we could reopen trading.

I'm not sure how the resolution for this would work. Does the CDC even officially declare epidemics?

Here's their page on the current situation, and a screenshot of the current status. By some definitions, this might already qualify as an epidemic among wild birds and dairy cattle, though I'm assuming you meant this to ask about humans.

H5 Bird Flu: Current Situation | Bird Flu | CDC

@TimothyJohnson5c16

Thank you so much for correcting my ignorance. I deeply apologize to you. I believe it is the surgeon general that would declare an epidemic. The CDC current public health risk is low. The CDC does issue information about disease outbreak through their Health Alert Network. Because of my mistake, I will do no more betting on this question. Again, I apologize.

@JimFix

Did I take ‘Intro to Computation’ with you ~11 or 12 years ago?

© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules