@JuJumper can you clarify whether this market requires vehicles that travel significant distances both in the air and on the ground?

That is, how car-like do they have to be? Will a VTOL sky-cab thing qualify?

@DanHomerick I would say a VTOL cab qualifies, and only air travel capability is required, ground being optional.

There's not much incentive to participate in this market since mana will be tied up until 2050.
You should consider compiling convincing evidence at the end of each year (leading up to 2050) and resolving the options that are already a reality.

@EstMtz I intend to resolve items before 2050 if convincing evidence is presented.

@EstMtz the loan system means that's not how it works anymore

@MalachiteEagle could you please elaborate what's that?

@JuJumper https://rimworldwiki.com/wiki/Joywire

@JuJumper in the context of this question I'd just define it as "The joywire is a brain implant that grants a permanent but substantial mood boost"

I bet this one will be claimed to have been achieved a few times by 2050, but it'll be con-men vastly over-hyping a minor accomplishment.

Risky to bet on though, because how do we know if the resolver will swallow the hype? Or conversely, be overly skeptical of a legit breakthrough.

@DanHomerick we can think about more specific resolution criteria. What do you have in mind?

@JuJumper i don't think it's particularly salvageable.

One could pick a sci-fi definition: perfect copy of the brain, such that the upload has all memories of original and thinks just like them. That's not achievable and will resolve NO (possibly with staged demos trying to fake YES, though...)

Or could pick something which doesn't match people's expectations, because the only experience we have with the concept is sci-fi. Further, we'd be picking some fuzzy midpoint on a large spectrum.

On one end is a deep brain "scan" that renders a perfect copy. On the other is essentially interviewing a person, maybe looking through all their digital footprints. When complete, the "upload" is just an LLM that trys to imitate their writing and speech style, and repeat positions that the person has previously claimed.

The shallow end fakery is already getting started, albeit not generally claiming to be an "upload" yet (give them time....).

So, where to pick that is clearly defined, where claims can accurately be tested, which meets people's ideas about the term, and which is not obviously a YES or NO resolution? I don't think there is a good answer.

@DanHomerick I think a perfect copy of at least some regions of brain are required for a true upload.

@JuJumper okay, but "perfect copy" is a sci-fi level understanding of the concept. It's not a rigorously defined term.

If "upload" gets traction in the next 25 years (like AGI is getting traction now), we'll quickly have conmen claiming perfect. Meanwhile, there may be some real significant steps taken towards a sort of digital twin. But what would this market actually resolve on?

Will a scifi understanding paired with a conman's claims make it go YES? Will people delegating decisions to their "upload" go NO, because it's a legit tech and a perfect copy isn't the claim being made?

This doesn't have to be hammered out. Most likely this market will resolve on some future mod's "I know it when I see it" vibe check. Which can be fine, I guess. But to the degree that expectations are laid out in detail now (contemporaneously), the better they'll be able to judge whether the predicted thing actually came about.

@JuJumper Aren't we travelling to the future all the time? If you want to speed it up, would cryonics qualify? What about relativistic time dilation?

Those do not count. It has to be time-machine-like and match general criteria for this market. (e.g. relativistic time dilation would count if it allowed to move something to the future usefully instead of it being an engineering problem)

So, it's a box for which someone pays to stay in to fast forward to some time in the future? Does hotel room qualify?

Just in case, I want to clarify that I'm not trolling. I genuinely think that it would be very difficult to define a "forward time machine" that would exclude things like cars, hotel rooms or cryonics tanks.

Inside a "forward time machine" must pass usefully less time than outside as measured by a physical clock, not just subjective perception. It seems to me your examples do not fit this definition.

Thank you for the clarification. So, the only realistic device that we know of that fits this description would be a spaceship that accelerates to relativistic velocity specifically to speed up the time for those inside.

@JuJumper commercial fusion is redundant

@Lemming elaborate please?

It was entered twice in this market under slightly different names

cold fusion is pretty different from "regular" fusion power

Bioprinting is kinda almost here. Dermatological use cases are much simpler than fully printed organs.

Would it be worth adding the "organ bioprinting" option? Not sure what the original asker intended

Sure