Luigi Mangione was reportedly taken in by authorities on 12/9/24. He was at a McDonald's in Altoona, Pennsylvania. https://nypost.com/2024/12/09/us-news/person-of-interest-in-fatal-shooting-of-unitedhealthcare-boss-brian-thompson-idd-as-luigi-mangione-an-ex-ivy-league-student/
1/15/25 update:
I will base a resolution on the following criteria:
- yes if Mangione is convicted of murder
- yes if Mangione pleads guilty
- no if Mangione is acquitted
- no if Mangione is not convicted
- no if Mangione never charged
- no if Mangione dies before a conviction
I will not vote in this market.
1,000
3.00@Robincvgr I put up more limit orders. I wanna divest out of ~~Mr. Bone’s Wild Ride~~ this market, so plz feel free to fill them.
@Jx please N/A. The resolution criteria changed substantially from what I thought I was betting on. Given how much the market moved, clearly this was a material change.
The market was primarily so high in the first place before the title change because there was the threat of changing the resolution criteria looming over it, preventing people from arbitraging, etc. (For instance, I was at some point betting it down to above 70% instead of ~40% to allow for a somewhat less than 50% chance of the resolution criteria changing.) The resolution criteria did not change, @Jx just confirmed that they would remain the same, rather than changing. (The market was also very spiky before, for the same reason.)
The other market on the same question also moved a lot, just more gradually, hence they were relatively close before and after the threat of changing resolution criteria, but disagreed significantly during. (Eg, both were around 70% on January 11)
@binarypigeon wasn't the original title "Is Luigi Mangione the person who shot
UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson?" I didn't realize I was betting on a conviction only in 2025!
@NateBaer That was the original title, which I agree was misleading and should have been changed earlier (that said, I do think that one can infer from the original title that one has to check what the actual resolution criteria are -- eg, is it based on conviction, subjective judgment, etc -- since the ground truth on the title question is inaccessible. In general, titles on manifold do often only loosely relate to resolution criteria -- one can debate whether the site should have rules preventing this, of course.). It differed from the earlier resolution criteria, though.
@binarypigeon I appreciate you taking the time to explain. Was a conviction only in 2025 clearly expressed in the original resolution criteria?
Just a tip: Any time you find yourself substantially re-writing the market title, the buttons you actually wanted are Resolve Market -> N/A. It's overused on a bunch of stuff (like "if <condition is not met>, resolves N/A), but "I want to 'clarify' resolution criteria in a way that drastically changes the likelihood" - or really, any case where you as the market creator screwed up the initial market description and people traded on that - is THE intended scenario for N/A.
@SeekingEternity He's in for a lot of 1 star ratings if he keeps the market open, lol (I already divested from this market)
@nottelling2ccc Because this market is now about something completely different than it was initially.
For people who want to bet on a later conviction deadline, there's now also this market: https://manifold.markets/Arcmage7000/will-luigi-mangione-be-convicted-of-CQRuROP528 (Probably there's still a decent chance that time rather than innocence will cause this other one to resolve "no".)
@Donald The update is just clarifying that the resolution criteria are remaining the same as before -- you can check the comment history. (In particular, the comments on the 9th of December, and also the recent thread where the creator was thinking of changing the resolution criteria because some people were misled by the title but decided not to, resulting in the recent "update".)
The creator (@Jx) originally said (on Dec 15) that it would resolve NO if no conviction occurred by the current end date (12/31/2025). They have recently been considering changing the date, and said "Since the beginning of this market, the deadline has been 12/31/25. I'm inclined to keep that date but not opposed to delaying.", and suggested they might change the title to reflect this. But they haven't yet said for certain whether the date will stay the same or change, so people are currently in part betting on what the creator will do.
@strutheo I agree that it's likely, but I'd say 98% confidence, definitely not good enough to resolve early, even besides the criteria that say it needs to stay open.