Donald Trump has expressed interest in purchasing at least part of Greenland. If the United States acquires at least part of Greenland before January 20, 2029, then the market resolves YES.
1,000
3.00
Can anyone steelman the case against this:
1. Denmark currently pays for over 50% (!) of the Greenland Government public budget (this grant is also ~20% of Greenland's GDP)
2.The Greenland PM has expressed a desire for independence from Denmark and a willingness to negotiate with the US.
3. What's stopping the US from offering Greenland more sovereignty (at least across the dimensions they care about) and/or more money than Denmark currently provides in exchange for the US gaining part of Greenland's territory to satisfy their geopolitical interests? (Note: a purchase of part of the land would resolve 'yes' according to the market's description)
4. Moreover, since the US is considerably larger economically they could easily outbid whatever Denmark could counter-offer
5. Greenland is also unique in that its land is incredibly valuable ( not just geopolitically but in terms of resource wealth & future maritime trade ) but it has a very small population (~55,000).
Not saying the US would do this but just to illustrate my point: If the US gave each citizen of Greenland 1 million dollars as a one-off payment that would cost them 55 Billion dollars which would only be 0.8% of the US government's annual expenditure!
@elf Greenland wants full independence as a sovereign state (expressed desire of the PM, general public, and largest parties in their parliament)
Also, There's no way Republicans would let it in as a state, their parliament is controlled by socdems. And the US treats territories (Puerto Rico, DC) extremely poorly.
Politically it's just not gonna happen
@IsaacLiu if they wanted full independence then why would the Prime Minister be open to speaking with the US?
That would suggest they’re open to negotiating some kind of compromise.
More than 50% of their government’s budget comes from Denmark so they may nominally want independence but they don’t want it so bad that they’re willing to forego those funds (otherwise they would have done that already)
@elf from what i've seen they have been planning independence referendums/taking gradual steps for some time now, just slowed by economic considerations. as a current/former colony they are entitled to self-determination on this under international law, apparently
if they join the US it would set full independence back for an extremely long time if not end hopes of it forever, America wouldn't just spend a bunch of money for nothing
maybe the PM wants to talk because Trump literally said he wouldn't rule out military/economic force and he wants to lower the temperature?
@IsaacLiu I think the PM wants to speak to Trump because he thinks doing so will give him more leverage in negotiations with Denmark. He has absolutely zero intention of ceding sovereignty to the US.
@IsaacLiu To add to the point you made about economic concerns:
Independence is a noble desire but for a small population like Greenland independence can only ever be nominal as they are reliant on others for security and are not economically self sufficient.
@IsaacLiu plausible that he will make positive noises about a possible deal to allow US companies to extract resources though, that would make a lot of sense from his perspective.
@elf If one nation-state claims that the sovereignty of Greenland cannot be legitimate because it has a limited ability to defend itself and be "economically self-sufficient", then by definition they no longer recognise the legitimacy of many nation states across the globe. E.g. Palau, Kiribati, Tuvalu, Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, Bhutan, Lesotho, Nauru, Monaco, San Marino.
If the US were to go through with annexation through an act of war / aggression or economic coercion, then by the same justification China can go ahead and unilaterally annex the Solomon Islands.
@elf not going to develope any kind of an argument, but I could imagine bases would be something, either US, or Danish, whichever wants them there, or joint Danish US. There appears to be a Dennis Leary series out, on those lines,...
Base rate should be some purchases/century (Louisiana, Alaska, etc https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_territorial_acquisitions_table ), say 2 to 6. That gives us 10% to 30% probability of the US buying land over a 5 year period. That doesn’t have to be Greenland though. Market seems priced properly at 17%
@mariopasquato When the US bought the Louisiana Purchase or Alaska, they were basically uninhabited by white people. I think the rate of buying land is much lower now.
@TimothyJohnson5c16 the population density of Greenland is also pretty low. There is a precedent of purchasing Danish islands with the Virgin Islands. But the tren is indeed slowing down.
@MalachiteEagle point taken 😂
I agreed with a comment you made earlier about being unlikely to cede territory no matter the price (as some things transcend money), but given Denmark is providing more than 50% (!) of the Greenland government's budget doesn't that demonstrate they're already willing to sacrifice some aspects of sovereignty for money?
@elf that a good question. I think the answer is that there is a difference between the situation people inherit and the situation they choose. The current situation does give the Greenlanders a pretty clear path towards independence; ceding sovereignty to a different foreign power is likely to set them on the opposite path.