Who will the next SCOTUS Justice to leave the court be? | Manifold

Who will the next SCOTUS Justice to leave the court be?

Plus

34

Ṁ3014

2031

9%

John Roberts

40%

Clarence Thomas

26%

Samuel Alito

10%

Sonia Sotomayor

3%

Elena Kagan

4%

Neil Gorsuch

5%

Brett Kavanaugh

1.6%

Amy Coney Barrett

1.5%

Ketanji Brown Jackson

0.1%

A Justice not yet seated

If it's multiple justices simultaneously, this market will resolve to an per-person split of all correct answers (eg: if there were 11 Justices and all 11 left, it would resolve with each current member AND 2 shares on A Justice not yet seated

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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1,000

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bought Ṁ1 YES

@mods I am incapable of buying any YES on any of the 0% options. I keep getting this screen (seen below), but only when I tap YES. I do not get this screen when I tap NO on those options. I think this is a bug.

Possibly a divide-by-zero error? 😆

looking into this btw

bought Ṁ1 YES

Amy Coney Barrett is YES-able now. The remaining 2 are still bugged.

Bug report is here: https://manifold.markets/JamesGrugett/bounty-for-reporting-manifold-bugs#4ja73hq22op

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bought Ṁ1 YES

Issue resolved, I think. I was able to put Mana on YES for an option reporting as 0%.

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When will the next justice be confirmed to the Supreme Court of the United States?

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