Will the United States go back to normally issue J-1 student visas for latinos by 2026?
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Dec 31
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Recent media reports from late May 2025 indicate a significant, though reportedly temporary, disruption to the processing of J-1 visas, which will affect applicants from Latin America.

According to multiple news outlets (including AP News, NPR, and information circulated by institutions like Yale University), the U.S. Department of State has directed U.S. Embassies and Consulates to pause the scheduling of new visa interviews for F, M, and J visa applicants, effective around May 27, 2025.

This suspension of new interview scheduling is to allow for the implementation and expansion of required social media screening and vetting procedures for these visa categories. While officials have stated this pause is temporary, a specific timeline for the resumption of new interview scheduling has not yet been announced.

Implications for J-1 Student Visa Applicants (including those from Latin America):

  • No New Interviews Being Scheduled: Individuals who have not yet scheduled their J-1 visa interview are currently unable to do so.

  • Existing Appointments Expected to Proceed: Those who already had visa interviews scheduled are reportedly not affected by this pause and should plan to attend their appointments.

  • Increased Scrutiny: The expansion of social media vetting suggests that even when interviews resume, applicants may face more intensive screening processes. This could contribute to longer processing times or new complexities in the application.

  • Uncertainty on "Normal" Processing: This development moves J-1 visa issuance further from what might be considered "normal" procedure. The "and what not" in visa processing now potentially includes more comprehensive social media checks. Earlier in February 2025, eligibility for visa interview waivers was also narrowed, increasing the number of applicants requiring interviews.

This market asks whether the U.S. will return to "normally" issuing J-1 student visas for Latinos by 2026. "Normally" would imply a state where applicants can reliably schedule interviews in a timely manner and undergo a predictable application process. The current pause, coupled with the impending new vetting measures, casts uncertainty on when such a state will resume.

Will these new procedures be smoothly integrated and interview scheduling capacity be restored to normal levels for Latin American J-1 student visa applicants by the end of 2025, allowing for a return to "normal" issuance by 2026? Or will this pause and the new screening requirements lead to sustained disruptions or a "new normal" of more complex and lengthy visa processing?

  • Update 2025-06-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has specified their approach to resolution:

    • Reliance will be placed on mainstream media reports.

    • If visa processing is reinstated, an absence of evidence in mainstream media indicating major, widespread problems (such as reports of high rejection rates or severe processing delays for a large percentage of applicants) will be considered a factor towards a YES resolution.

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bought Ṁ10,000 NO

NAFSA considers us to be in a more challenging new normal with a gigantic 30-40% decline in new international student enrollment based on their most recent model: https://www.nafsa.org/about/about-nafsa/us-economy-could-suffer-7-billion-loss-precipitous-drop-international-students

bought Ṁ1,250 YES

@MP Some J-1 visa appointment scheduling is resuming, with extra scrutiny for applicants' social media. Would this qualify as a resumption?

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-administration-resuming-student-visa-appointments-state-dept-official-says-2025-06-18/

bought Ṁ2,500 NO

@spiderduckpig @MP My interpretation of the detailed description is that if the new scrutiny or any other changes create a "new normal" that is notably more challenging or time-consuming, that would be enough for a No (assuming it continues through the end of the year).

@Panfilo That's a much lower/different bar than what's written in the description?

any other changes create a "new normal" that is notably more challenging or time-consuming

vs.

"Normally" would imply a state where applicants can reliably schedule interviews in a timely manner and undergo a predictable application process...

Will these new procedures be smoothly integrated and interview scheduling capacity be restored to normal levels for Latin American J-1 student visa applicants by the end of 2025, allowing for a return to "normal" issuance by 2026?

Any social media vetting would obviously make the process more "challenging" for the applicants. But this is not a question about whether there are any new barriers in the process that weren't there before. The description refers to people's ability to schedule their interviews & have them processed in a reasonably "timely manner" (as defined by ~roughly similar enough to the old status quo, which wasn't super convenient to begin with).

and it's not about if the # of student visas issued returns to previous levels—they certainly cannot within 2025, students are on a yearly cycle and the disruption that prompted question creation has already occurred. this question refers to the capacity for interview scheduling & processing (if things are back to normal in december, the disruption in june doesn't matter).

it's certainly possible that social media screening will complicate the process enough that the system can't keep up and it becomes much more difficult to schedule your interview (or it takes forever to be processed), I'd assume that motivated the question. but the existence of social media screening as an additional barrier for the applicant does not directly tell you anything about how well the system can keep up with processing applicants.

The resolution criteria for this is very nebulous. Maybe edit for clarity

@JussiVilleHeiskanen I'll rely on the mainstream media, and the absence of evidence (say they reinstate and no media outlet runs a story saying they are fucking 70% of applicants).

@MP What if major media outlets don't run a big story, but immigrant/student-centered youtube channels and other focused media all continue to affirm that there is a new normal and a failure to cleanse your social media will screw you over?

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