Resolution criteria:

This market will resolve to the earliest year in which an AI system demonstrably creates a financial model that is indistinguishable from those produced by human equity analysts (including a 3 statement model with conservative, base, and optimistic cases alongside a DCF). The determination will be based on credible reports or studies indicating that AI-generated financial models have matched or surpassed human analysts in accuracy, depth, and insight. If no such evidence emerges by the end of 2030, the market will resolve to "2030+".

Background:

Recent advancements in artificial intelligence, particularly large language models (LLMs), have shown promising capabilities in financial analysis. A 2024 study by the University of Chicago Booth School of Business found that GPT-4 outperformed human analysts in predicting the direction of future earnings, achieving an accuracy of 60.4%, which is 7 percentage points higher than the average analyst prediction. (qz.com)

Additionally, AI systems like FinRobot have been developed to emulate comprehensive equity research processes, integrating both quantitative and qualitative analyses to produce reports comparable to those of major brokerage firms. (arxiv.org)

Despite these advancements, AI models still face challenges in areas requiring strategic intuition and the ability to predict non-trend events, suggesting that while AI is rapidly advancing, it has not yet fully replicated the nuanced judgment of experienced human analysts. (ft.com)

Considerations:

• The definition of "indistinguishable" in this context implies that AI-generated financial models are on par with human analysts in terms of accuracy, depth, and insight.

• The resolution of this market depends on the emergence of credible evidence demonstrating AI's capability to match or surpass human analysts in creating financial models.

• The timeline for such advancements is uncertain, and while current trends are promising, achieving full parity with human analysts may take several more years.