Which new AI models will be released in January 2025?
Basic
21
𝕊649
Feb 1
5%
OpenAI flagship language model (ie. gpt-5)
13%
Open AI o3
74%
Open AI o3-mini
23%
OpenAI video generation
26%
OpenAI image generation
31%
OpenAI (other)*
15%
Anthropic flagship language model**
21%
Anthropic reasoning language model***
25%
Anthropic (other)****
20%
Midjourney
18%
Nvidia
39%
Google
25%
Microsoft
22%
Meta
22%
Amazon large language model
30%
XAI language
20%
XAI image generation

Released = available to some portion of the public (including a subset of subscribers or a limited number of API developers from members of the public). Released only for safety testing does not count.

New model = Either announced by the company as a new model, is clear from numbering/naming it is a distinct model, or able to be selected from some sort of menu as a distinct model. Something like "o1 extra mini" would count as while it is part of o1 it can be considered a distinct model in this market.

Please note that any model which came out this month prior to market creation will not count (a new model from the company should come out for the answer to resolve to yes). For example Nvidia's recently released AI called Cosmos will not count towards this market.

Must be released before January 31st 11:59pm PST. If it is announced but not yet released to any members of the public it will not count.

*OpenAI (other) refers to any model that is not their new flagship model (eg. gpt 5), o3, or o3-mini, a video generator, or an image generator. It could be a derivative of another language model or some other type of model such as a voice generator.

**Anthropic flagship language model refers to a model comparable to claude 3.5 or gpt-4o that should outperform claude 3.5 sonnet on a majority of performance benchmarks. This should not be a reasoning model.

***Anthropic reasoning model refers to a model that is not considered their everyday task model and is akin to what OpenAI's O1 is to gpt-4o.

****Anthropic (any other) refers to any model that is not a reasoning model nor their new flagship model. For example, it could be a derivative of an existing language model or a different type of AI model entirely.

  • Update 2025-09-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Update from creator:

    • A model relaunched as Gemini 2 Pro with any small updates will count as a new model.

    • If a model is only renamed to Gemini 2 Pro without any updates, it will not count.

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bought Ṁ250 YES

And Microsoft published rstar paper yesterday although there is no code yet. Would it be considered to be “a model”? It is a system which uses other models for o1-style reasoning. If not, do we even know that we can consider o1 to be a model?

bought 𝕊2.80 YES

@qumeric People can use o1, is microsoft's model usable?

bought Ṁ150 YES

I think NVIDIA released cosmos-nemotron in January? It is different from cosmos mentioned in the market description. It is already available in preview e.g here https://build.nvidia.com/nvidia/cosmos-nemotron-34b

And also new version of Llama nemotron based on LLAMA-3.3?

bought 𝕊8.00 NO

@qumeric nemotron came out before market was made

@ian isn’t it different? It’s very confusing so I cannot really understand myself and some things do not have publish dates but AFAIU there is:

  • Nemotron

  • Llama-nemotron based on Llama-3.1

  • Llama-nemotron based on Llama-3.3

  • Cosmos-nemotron (although maybe it’s the same as previous point)

@qumeric This market was created Jan 8th.

bought Ṁ100 YES

Would Gemini 2 Pro be a new model? "Gemini-Exp 1206" may be a preview version of Gemini 2 Pro, but Google might not confirm that.

@JoshYou Yes, it would count as it would meet the company naming distinction that the market requires. Even if they do say it is based on the same model and relaunch it as Gemini 2 Pro with any small updates it would count. The only reason it wouldn't count is if they just rename it to Gemini 2 Pro with no other updates.

I feel like there’s an insane amount of sweeps money sitting on the table here

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