Will Elon Musk be out of Trump's administration before any of Trump's cabinet?
Will Elon Musk be out of Trump's administration before any of Trump's cabinet?
Basic
15
Ṁ3902029
20%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
For the purposes of this question, "Trump's cabinet" is defined as any of the 24 members of Cabinet and Cabinet-level officials serving at the pleasure of the presient. Only members who have assumed office will count, meaning a failed confirmation won't count. This question resolves YES if Elon Musk is out of his Government Efficiency effort role (and only if he doesn't leave that role to take some other position in the administration, such as an "advisor to the president"). If Elon leaves his Gov. Efficiency role for a cabinet position before anyone else assumes that role, this question resolves N/A.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana
and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana
and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.Related questions
Will Elon Musk cease to be an advisor to Donald Trump and face public criticism from Donald Trump before 2026?
29% chance
Will Elon & Trump have a major falling out by EoY 2025?
20% chance
Will Elon Musk get a cabinet position?
2% chance
When will Elon Musk no longer play a significant role in the Trump Administration?
Will Elon Musk be appointed to an official U.S. government advisory role if Donald Trump is re-elected?
92% chance
If Trump wins the election, will he appoint Elon Musk to a federal government position by the end of 2025?
69% chance
Will Elon Musk be given a Cabinet position by the end of June 2025?
3% chance
Will Elon Musk get fired from the Trump administration?
37% chance
Will Musk still be on good terms with Trump at the end of 2025?
68% chance
Will Elon Musk be a citizen of the United States at the end of Trump's current term in office?
91% chance