Background

The United States currently maintains approximately 100,000 troops across Europe, with significant deployments in countries like Germany, Italy, Poland, and the United Kingdom. Recent reports suggest that the Trump administration may be considering a reduction of around 20,000 U.S. troops from Europe, potentially redirecting military resources toward the Indo-Pacific region to counter China's growing influence.

However, there are conflicting signals about these plans:

• Polish President Andrzej Duda has reportedly received assurances from the U.S. that there will be no reduction in troop levels in Poland or along NATO's eastern flank

• Discussions at the Munich Security Conference highlighted concerns about potential reductions in U.S. military engagement in Europe

• Some Western officials fear a potential deal between the U.S. and Russia regarding Ukraine could lead to partial troop withdrawals from Europe

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve as YES if the United States government (including the White House, Department of Defense, or other official government entity) makes a formal announcement by April 30, 2025, declaring a planned reduction of U.S. troop levels in Europe.

The announcement must:

• Come from an official U.S. government source

• Explicitly state an intention to reduce the overall number of U.S. troops stationed in European countries

• Be made on or before April 30, 2025

The market will resolve as NO if:

• No such announcement is made by April 30, 2025

• An announcement is made that explicitly states troop levels will remain the same or increase

• Only troop repositioning within Europe is announced without an overall reduction

Considerations

The resolution of this market depends on official announcements, not implementation. If an announcement is made by the deadline but the actual troop reduction is scheduled to occur after April 30, 2025, the market will still resolve as YES.