TikTok Ban Endgame: Which will happen first?

Plus

179

Ṁ62k

2029

44%

TikTok will become unavailable in Apple/Google app stores in the US for at least 30 days

21%

None of these will happen by EOY 2028

15%

TikTok will be sold to a non-Chinese company

15%

The TikTok "ban" will be rendered unenforceable by courts (with little chance of appeal/overturn)

The TikTok "ban" will be vetoed by a president (with little chance of override)

1.2%

The TikTok "ban" will go at least a year without movement toward becoming law

Will resolve to the first thing that definitely happens

Update 2025-11-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Criteria Update:
- Movement toward becoming law is no longer a potential resolution since the ban has been signed into law.

Update 2025-15-01 (PST): - If TikTok shuts down entirely, it will presumably not be available in the app stores, and the market will resolve accordingly. (AI summary of creator comment)

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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https://www.scmp.com/tech/tech-war/article/3294946/tiktok-shut-down-us-operations-sunday-barring-last-minute-reprieve-sources-say

Note: If TikTok shuts down entirely, it will (presumably) not be available in the app stores, and the market will resolve accordingly.

I'm avoiding trading on this market myself but I'll say that I cannot imagine a circumstance in which I'd resolve to this option now that the ban has become law

I'm curious what "None of these will happen" looks like -- maybe the executive simply doesn't bother enforcing the law?

@SanijsVilnis

Hi You no

reposted

@MichaelBlume Good market, especially with the bill looking very likely to pass! I'm adding some subsidy and boosting!

Both, Either?

@DavidFWatson Let's go with a majority of smartphone users in the US will not be able to download TikTok from their preferred app store.

@MichaelBlume Wait, doesn’t that just mean this resolves 100% based on the Apple App Store?

@DavidFWatson Why even mention Google?

"movement toward becoming law" means procedural stuff, amendments, floor votes, stuff you would see in the congressional record

bought Ṁ100 NO

@MichaelBlume So since it's now signed into law, that option is guaranteed to resolve NO, right?

@PlasmaBallin sorry for not responding sooner. Yeah, I can't imagine why I'd resolve to this

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