Resolves YES if it is reputably reported/announced that Waymo has begun serving pickups OR dropoffs from any SFO airport TERMINAL (edit: or the parking garage rideshare area). Resolves NO at close otherwise. Note that service to/from the SFO airtrain stations for long-term parking, rental cars, or West Field Rd do NOT count as they are not within the SFO terminal area.
(previous https://manifold.markets/MingweiSamuel/will-waymo-give-rides-tofrom-sfo-ai - note I forgot to specify driverless in this 2024 version)
Update 2024-12-27 - Pickups/dropoffs in the Uber/Lyft area on the top level of the parking garage are considered within the SFO area and will count towards the resolution. (reviewed summary of creator comment)
1,000
3.00News broke out today of this happening in phases. https://techcrunch.com/2025/09/16/waymo-approved-to-start-testing-autonomous-vehicles-at-san-francisco-international-airport/
phase 1: autonomous mode with a “trained specialist” behind the wheel. I don't think this will count as "driverless". This will start in the coming weeks.
Phase 2: testing passenger service with employees and airport staff.
Phase 3: all public
The third phase is what I think would resolve this market yes. I'm not confident they'll get to that by the end of the year.
Waymo has received a permit for its vehicles to map the airport, but they are barred from commercial deliveries, according to the article.