Los Angeles Fires mega market 🧑‍🚒️‍🔥😢

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Ṁ170k

Feb 8

98%

Will more than 10,000 houses be destroyed?

93%

Will this be biggest fire in California history by damage / insurance claims?

85%

Will all fires be 90% contained by Feb 1st?

58%

Will army or navy be deployed (at least 100 troops deployed)?

47%

Will all LA public schools closed due to fires be reopened by Feb 1? (except those destroyed by fire)

27%

Will the Palisades fire be 90% contained before Monday Jan 20th?

23%

Will state of emergency be lifted by Feb 1st?

19%

Will there be significant rain in Los Angeles before Feb 1st?

18%

Will all fires be 90% contained before Monday Jan 20th?

15%

Will any of the fires reach Bel Air Country Club?

15%

Will Mayor Karen Bass resign by April 1st?

13%

Will areas north of Ventura Blvd be evacuated before Jan 20th? (Palisades fire moving north to Encino)

13%

Will any of the fires spread to Beverly Hills?

13%

Will there be a significant fire in Orange County?

12%

Will any major LA area airport (LAX/BUR/SNA/ONT) shut down or cancel all flights for more than 2 hours?

11%

Will significant parts of UCLA campus be evacuated?

Will substantial areas of *residential* Encino be evacuated by Jan 20th? (Palisades fire spreading north to Encino)

Will the Palisades fire "jump" north over 101 freeway in any substantial section by Jan 20th? Not a new fire, has to be continuation.

Will Gavin Newsom resign before May 1st?

Resolved

YES

Will Los Angeles air quality return to "normal" or "elevated" levels before Feb 1st?

The first started on Tuesday Jan 7th and devastated Malibu, Pacific Palisades, parts of Pasadena and several other communities.

https://deepnewz.com/natural-disasters

As of Wednesday afternoon, the fire are "0% contained" and there are four major fires burning across the Los Angeles area.

We will create questions here about the fires. When will they be contained? What cities will be evacuated? When will air quality return to "normal"?

Please suggest good questions in the comments.

If there is a similar Polymarket question -- we will follow their resolution criteria, whenever possible. If not we will use common sense and logic.

https://deepnewz.com/natural-disasters/two-dead-80000-evacuated-palisades-eaton-fires-destroy-1000-structures-400bd1af

I will be betting these markets.

All times will be midnight Pacific. So "by Feb 1st" means this resolves as soon as it is Feb 1st (midnight) in California.

Update 2025-08-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Criteria:
- All fires part of yesterdays cohort are considered when determining the outcome.

Update 2025-08-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Criteria:
- Any airport with airline traffic is considered a major LA area airport, including:
- Burbank
- LAX
- John Wayne
- Ontario

Update 2025-08-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Criteria Clarification:
- All current fires (four/five) are part of this market.
- Any continuation of these fires is included in the market.
- Fires that die down and start again after a pause are considered new fires and are not part of this market.

Update 2025-08-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Resolution will follow Polymarket rules whenever appropriate.
- Definition of "fire containment" as per Polymarket's definition.
- Additional information can be found at California Fire Agency.

Update 2025-08-01 (PST): - Long Beach is considered a major airport and more major than Ontario. (AI summary of creator comment)

Update 2025-08-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Current Fire Count: There are five fires in Los Angeles and one in Riverside.
- Containment Status: Only one fire is partially contained (40%); the others are 0% contained.
- New Fire Consideration: The "Sunset" Fire in West Hollywood will be included in this market only if it is reclassified as part of the existing fires. If not reclassified, it will clear the "any new fires in Los Angeles" market.

Update 2025-08-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): • Resolution for fire spread predictions: Determined by the official California fire website.
- Follow Polymarket's resolution definition where appropriate.
- Reference: Polymarket Event

Update 2025-12-01 (PST): - Charter schools are considered public schools (AI summary of creator comment)

Update 2025-12-01 (PST): - Excludes National Guard: Deployment count does not include National Guard troops. The deployment of the National Guard is addressed in a separate question, which has already been resolved as YES. (AI summary of creator comment)

Update 2025-12-01 (PST): - Air Quality Resolution: The air quality market will be resolved as YES if weather apps show Los Angeles air quality as "good" or "moderate" and Palisades as "excellent", indicating that air quality is not a problem in most of the city. (AI summary of creator comment)

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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bought Ṁ400 NO

Air quality is "good" in Los Angels overall despite the fires. Resolving YES

Biggest development is the Palisades fire spreading north, threatening Encino.

Making a few markets related to that -- this is Encino -- you can see it on the map just north of Mulholland Drive

https://www.fire.ca.gov/

bought Ṁ3,000 NO

It looks like the fires did not spread across San Vincente into Santa Monica. Although you can see areas under evacuation.

resolving that market at NO.

Three fires still burning

As many have pointed out, fully containing Palisades fire will be hard, since it takes manual work to walk the massive perimeter and certify that the ground is cold. So that one will take a while even if not burning nearly as badly as it was days ago...

Summary on the fires as of this morning
https://deepnewz.com/smart-search

sold Ṁ959 YES

weather apps showing Los Angeles air quality as "good" or "moderate"

while Palisades showing as "excellent"

fires are still burning -- but considering resolving air quality market as YES -- since air quality does not appear to be a problem in most of the city

anything I am missing?

@Moscow25 I just came here to comment but you beat me to it. Airnow.gov says air quality in the entire region has returned to at least moderate. I live here and it's a beautiful breezy day outside. Should resolve YES!

@Moscow25 do you mean active troops or reserves?

@BlueDragon More like this kind of request I'd assume since Army National Guard is already there, expanding it to other military makes sense.

(I'm not the creator obviously, so it's up to them still)

U.S. military is ready to respond to California wildfires, FEMA's Criswell said

Published Sun, Jan 12 2025 12:56 PM EST

@EBSnyder yes not counting National Guard -- that's a separate questions that resolved YES

@Moscow25 California National Guard is not the same as US Army or Navy Reserves, which is not the same as US Army or Navy active troops.

Looks like there are active duty troops “standing by”, which I don’t know if that counts as deployed, but they are marines, not army or navy https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/4026609/us-military-already-fighting-fires-in-california-ready-to-do-more/

bought Ṁ100 NO

Is a charter school a “public school”?

@JimAusman not the creator so they will have to make the ruling themselves but i will say personally LA charter schools are definitely public schools (this would not be considered ambiguous to ed policy folks)