Any payload delivered to its intended orbit for its customer will count as a Yes.
Project Kuiper counts for New Glenn
Starlink counts for Starship
Update 2025-13-01 (PST): - 1st Blue Ring launch does not count.
Update 2025-16-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarifications:
Blue Ring pathfinder is not considered a commercial payload since it is not a functional satellite.
1,000
3.00@NGK They're launching a "Blue Ring pathfinder", and the payload won't release from the second stage. It's also not really all that functional;
The demonstrator includes a communications array, power systems, and a flight computer affixed to a secondary payload adapter ring. The pathfinder will validate Blue Ring’s communications capabilities from orbit to ground. The mission will also test its in-space telemetry, tracking and command hardware, and ground-based radiometric tracking that will be used on the future Blue Ring production space vehicle. The pathfinder will remain onboard New Glenn’s second stage for the duration of an expected six-hour mission.
What blue ring actually is, insofar as I understand it, is a fancy payload adapter with comms for rideshares. Edit: See next comment
https://www.blueorigin.com/news/blue-ring-pathfinder-payload
I'm honestly not sure anymore if this should count. It doesn't really feel like an actual payload. But maybe it's too late now to change the ruling.
About Blue Ring
Blue Ring addresses two of the most difficult challenges in spaceflight today: Growing space infrastructure and the need for increased mobility in space. The spacecraft’s ability to maneuver to multiple orbits and locations, deploy and host payloads, and perform onboard computing and communications will enable groundbreaking missions for a variety of customers.
The multi-mission space mobility platform can deliver and host 3,000 kilograms of payloads across 13 ports to destinations in GEO, cislunar, and interplanetary space. Blue Ring's ports can accommodate ESPA and ESPA Grande class satellites and up to a 2.5 metric ton payload on its top deck.
So an actual Blue Ring would be a kind of space tug. But the Blue Ring pathfinder is just a brick with comms, and it's not getting deployed.
Disregard this. I did not read your comment properly. I agree - This does not count as a commercial launch.
@Mqrius I agree that this rides the line. I am still leaning towards counting Blue Ring since it does provide a commercial service for customers in space. You can inquire about these services on BO’s website here.
https://www.blueorigin.com/blue-ring
I’m willing to hear what other people think. I’m also willing to pass off the resolution to mod/3rd party for this one if necessary. Since I am the biggest Yes holder and have been betting under the assumption that Blue Ring counts.
the argument is solid, but i did bet according to your comment @NGK 4 months ago stating it would count. but also since this info was not available 4 months ago, i am willing to lose the mana.
@notarealuser back then they were planning to launch an actual blue ring, not a pathfinder, if I recall correctly. They've been saying pathfinder since... December? Maybe November? I didn't really notice when they switched.
@Mqrius I don’t even know when the plan changed to be honest. I always thought it was a full Blue Ring satellite. Hence my comment above. And before that it was supposed to be ESCAPADE.
It could be that it was always a pathfinder since the original teeet says “Blue Ring technology” which could just mean comms etc.
@notarealuser since it isn’t a functional blue ring satellite I think it stands that it is not a “commercial” payload.
@NGK This seems like the important question. ESCAPADE is a government satellite, which in industry parlance would often be considered "civil" instead of "commercial" space. But, it's for a paying customer (NASA), which I assume is what most traders have in mind for a market like this. It's not a dummy payload.
500 Yes at 15% if anyone wants it