Will a US state attempt to leave the union by 2030?
Will a US state attempt to leave the union by 2030?
Plus
31
Ṁ14452029
9%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
Sort by:
Would a failed ballot measure (aka referendum, people’s initiative), or a bill that’s introduced in the legislature but voted down count? If it depends on the margin, how?
@NoUsernameSelected A little hard to define, but something like: the state government has to intend to secede, and take some action to do so.
@AndrewHartman My understanding was that there have only ever been unsuccessful attempts, during the Civil War; the Confederate states each passed bills of secession but didn't successfully leave the Union.
Will a US state attempt to leave the union by 2030?, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition

What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana
and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana
and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.Related questions
Will a US state attempt to leave the union by 2100?
59% chance
Will any US state secede before 2030?
10% chance
Will there be a state introduced or removed from the union by 2030?
16% chance
Will any US state secede before 2050?
24% chance
Will any US state attempt to secede from the union within one year of the 2024 election?
8% chance
Will any US places successfully change states by 2030?
14% chance
Will the US admit a new state by 2030?
18% chance
Will Texas secede from the United States by 2030?
3% chance
As of November 2028, will any of the current 50 US states attempt to secede from the Union.
20% chance
Will there be multiple new US states by the end of 2030?
10% chance