Will a US state attempt to leave the union by 2030?
Will a US state attempt to leave the union by 2030?
➕
Plus
31
Ṁ1445
2029
9%
chance
Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00


Sort by:
2y

Would a failed ballot measure (aka referendum, people’s initiative), or a bill that’s introduced in the legislature but voted down count? If it depends on the margin, how?

2y

@yaboi69 No, the bill or ballot measure has to pass.

2y
Pictures of us states floating away into ocean

Define "attempt"?

2y

@NoUsernameSelected A little hard to define, but something like: the state government has to intend to secede, and take some action to do so.

2y

@NcyRocks If a state legislature passes a bill of secession, they've successfully seceded (although at that point it gets interesting as to how long they remain independent). So I'm curious what an unsuccessful attempt would look like, in your view.

2y

@AndrewHartman My understanding was that there have only ever been unsuccessful attempts, during the Civil War; the Confederate states each passed bills of secession but didn't successfully leave the Union.

Will a US state attempt to leave the union by 2030?, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana Ṁ and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash S to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
S1.00
→ $1.00
, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.
© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules