Will Lake Powell dip below elevation 3,490 ft, which is “minimum power pool” prior to May 1 2025?

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Lake Powell is located in Utah and Arizona in the USA. Below a water level elevation of 3,490 ft, the Glen Canyon Dam would stop producing power. Regardless of future changes to thresholds or nomenclature, this market will resolve if the reported level for Lake Powell is below 3,490.0 ft at this website at any time prior to May 1st, 2025: https://www.usbr.gov/rsvrWater/rsv40Day.html

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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Did you intend for this market to close already? Looks like it should be extended until May 1, 2025

@mndrix close yes. Resolve no. Although the resolution looks pretty set will wait until date to resolve. Close early so people have to make predictions.

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The USBR 2-year predictions give the lowest modeled elevation between now and May 2025 as 3510 feet. With 2024 snowpack looking reasonable, it would take an almost inconceivable drought in the spring of 2025 to reach minimum power pool.

The USBR 5-year predictions give 0% probability for Lake Powell <3490

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