Background

Manifold Markets is a prediction market platform where users can bet on various outcomes. Sweepstakes are a feature within Manifold that allows users to participate in prediction games using Sweepcash, which can be redeemed for cash and prizes. The platform has announced plans to remove this feature.

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve as YES if by April 28th, 2023, there is clear evidence that removing Sweepstakes has negatively impacted Manifold in at least one of the following ways:

• Significant decrease in user engagement metrics (such as daily active users, time spent on platform, or number of trades)

• Public statements from Manifold acknowledging negative impacts

• Substantial negative user feedback that prompts Manifold to reconsider or modify their decision

• Financial metrics showing a decline attributable to the removal of Sweepstakes

The market will resolve as NO if by April 28th, 2025, there is no clear evidence of negative impact, or if the removal of Sweepstakes appears to have neutral or positive effects on Manifold's platform.

Considerations

The impact of removing a feature from a platform can be difficult to measure precisely, as it may affect different user segments differently. Some users may be heavily invested in Sweepstakes while others may not use this feature at all. Additionally, Manifold may implement alternative features or incentives to replace Sweepstakes, which could mitigate potential negative effects.