Will there be >20% semiconductor-specific tariffs lasting over a month by the end of 2025?
3
Ṁ61Dec 31
20%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
See https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2025/04/16/2025-06591/notice-of-request-for-public-comments-on-section-232-national-security-investigation-of-imports-of and <https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/us-release-result-probe-into-chip-imports-two-weeks-2025-07-27/>. If the tariffs affect the supply I will resolve this up to my best judgment, but probably looking at my estimate of whether 80%+ of high-end chips are hit.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
Related questions
Related questions
Will US tariffs be higher in 2025 than 2024?
99% chance
Will tariffs in Q4 2025 be below what they were in Q4 2024?
4% chance
Will the tariffs be successful in bringing back manufacturing to the US ? (2025)
-
US tariff rate on Chinese goods at end of 2025?
-
How high will the US tariff rate get in 2025?
What will be the highest effective US tariff rate on China by EOY 2025?
What will average US tariffs be at the start of 2026?
-
Will any tariffs enacted by President Trump in 2025 remain at 25% or higher on any goods from Canada by end of 2025?
54% chance
Will any country place new tariffs on Tesla in 2025?
37% chance
What will happen by the end of 2025 under President Trump's tariff policies?