Will there be >20% semiconductor-specific tariffs lasting over a month by the end of 2025?
3
Ṁ61
Dec 31
20%
chance

See https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2025/04/16/2025-06591/notice-of-request-for-public-comments-on-section-232-national-security-investigation-of-imports-of and <https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/us-release-result-probe-into-chip-imports-two-weeks-2025-07-27/>. If the tariffs affect the supply I will resolve this up to my best judgment, but probably looking at my estimate of whether 80%+ of high-end chips are hit.

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules