China is daring Trump to go ahead and increase the tariffs above the current 145% level
"The successive imposition of excessively high tariffs on China by the US has become nothing more than a numbers game, with no real economic significance," a spokesperson for China's Commerce Ministry said in a statement on Friday.
Will he go for it ?
Resolution Criteria
This market resolves to YES if the United States imposes tariffs on Chinese goods that exceed 150% at any point. It resolves to NO if tariffs on Chinese goods remain at or below 150% until the market's closing date.
To qualify, tariff changes need to go in effect, not merely be annouced.
1,000
3.00245% tariff goes into effect today so this should resolve: https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/us-news/china-to-now-pay-up-to-245-tariffs-on-imports-to-us-trumps-latest-move-trade-war-101744789093597.html
@NeoMalthusian We just have a fact sheet says China "faces" ... 245% tariff. AFAICS We don't yet know when the implementation date of the extra 75% to 100% will be and if Trump makes some other arrangement before it is implemented I suggest this question might still resolve no.
@ChristopherRandles The fact sheet isn’t announcing new announcing a new 245% reciprocal tariff. It’s just fact checking the first collections for goods facing the full 245% tariff would have occurred on or shortly after April 10, 2025, for imports cleared by U.S. Customs that are subject to all three tariff categories, like electrical vehicles. So according to the White House there’s already been goods subject to a maximum 245% levy, so this market should’ve been resolved a few days ago. https://www.newsweek.com/china-245-trump-tariff-2060295
I will wait for more clarity before resolving either way. I will say that the newsweek article you posted makes it look more like the Trump admin is using creative accounting rather that actually doing anything to escalate the trade war by adding tariffs which is what this market was intended to be about.
"Electric vehicles, for example, have outstanding Section 301 tariffs of 100 percent dating back to the Biden Administration, meaning these products would face a 245 percent rate in total."
That was new to me. Seems like already in place? (Which would mean the previously reported 145% total rate was understated?) Creative accounting? Are you suggesting the infrastructure for the 75-100% tariff was in place but trump is potentially bringing it into effect at some point?
Waiting for further clarity seems sensible.
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>"by adding tariffs which is what this market was intended to be about."
That may have been the intention to be about "adding tariffs" but the resolution criteria seems quite clear.
Resolution Criteria
This market resolves to YES if the United States imposes tariffs on Chinese goods that exceed 150% at any point.
@Odoacre So are you waiting to resolve if only the reciprocal tariff increases past 150% not any combinations on tariffs.
@NeoMalthusian Either that or some additional new tariff gets added would be a clear yes.
You are right that the criteria may be poorly written as is now, I apologize for that, however I'm not convinced this 245% number is even real.
A White House official told Newsweek the calculation reflects the maximum potential rate some Chinese goods could face, combining the reciprocal tariff, the fentanyl tariff, and existing Section 301 tariffs that go up to 100 percent.
"potential" is doing a lot of work in that sentence.
Form the white house fact sheet: China now faces up to a 245% tariff on imports to the United States as a result of its retaliatory actions