Will a new interstellar object be observed inside the solar system in 2025 ?
Basic
18
Ṁ1980
resolved Jul 3
Resolved
YES

So far two interstellar objects have been observed inside the solar system, 1I/'Oumuamua in 2017 and 2I/Borisov in 2019.

Will a new object designated with an I number be observed during 2025 ?

If the object is observed in 2025 but only receives the I designation at a later date, this will resolve YES. The market will remain open for a few months in 2026 for this reason, especially if there are likely candidates.

Interstellar Meteors (designated by IM) do not count for this market.

#Space
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I suspect interstellar objects are very common, and we are now attaining the technological level to better detect them.

New market!

It's confirmed

MPEC 2025-N12 : 3I/ATLAS = C/2025 N1 (ATLAS)

Looks like it's going to be called 3I/Atlas

I think I'll resolve now and ask for a mod re-resolve if for some reason the naming does not happen

@Odoacre on second thought, giving people a day or so to disagree with me won't hurt

I’m not saying it’s Aliens. But it’s probably Aliens.

bought Ṁ50 YES
sold Ṁ99 YES

@Odoacre I’m so annoyed that this market didn’t have more traders/liquidity

@Odoacre i would have probably been willing to buy like 50k YES shares at some prob below 50%

@bens these types of market function best as a news alert. There's relatively little value in putting in much liquidity since the first mover takes it all.

What happened

sold Ṁ80 YES

@bens @meawoppl

@bens you better not be getting my hopes up for no reason

opened a Ṁ100 YES at 20% order

https://open.substack.com/pub/thebsdetector/p/one-aliens-trash-is-another-aliens?r=19iisj&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=false

bought Ṁ20 YES

Praying for no Vera Rubin delays

bought Ṁ200 NO

xkcd.com/955 applies for me here

@jks I mean... the base rate is like 2 per decade or so

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