Resolves once we have a definitive answer to the question.
Update 2025-04-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Additional Resolution Conditions:
The market will resolve only when a definitive answer is reached, meaning a stable consensus on who was president in 2020 is established.
Resolution is expected to occur only after 2020 no longer remains a subject of active political contention.
This includes a period when pressures that might encourage the distortion or hiding of evidence have subsided.
Update 2025-04-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Definitive Answer Clarification:
The market will resolve when a definitive answer is reached, which means the creator has reviewed all notable evidence from both sides.
The resolution requires that the creator has at least 98% confidence in a particular answer being correct.
If more than one answer qualifies as correct under this criterion, the market will resolve by awarding all correct answers equally.
1,000
3.00@121 This market resolves once we have a definitive answer to this question. (i.e. "I've looked at all notable evidence presented by both sides and have upwards of 98% confidence that a certain conclusion is correct, and it doesn't seem likely that any further relevant evidence will be forthcoming any time soon.")
If, for some reason, more than one answer is correct, I will resolve the correct answers equally.
@121 If you need more confidence that I will resolve this market accurately, you can also refer to this market:
I have it on good authority that Jonathan R. Alger was the American president in 2020.
@DavidFWatson It's important to add the middle initial so this question is not ambiguous. There is more than one Donald Trump in America.
@Joshua Given the uncertainty and that it may take years to resolve either way, the price should tend to stay at 50/50
@Felle We all remember that day in Pennsylvania, but the crazy reality of it is that there was never any rally or shooter. Xi staged the whole thing in front of a green screen:
@Joshua
I think we need to use bayesian analysis to incorporate all of the evidence we've seen so far:
