1,000
3.00LOESS curve of opinion polls of voters for the 2025 Canadian federal election campaign:
Dark mode for viewing pleasure:
Up-to-date as of April 9, 2025. 30-poll smoothing factor. Square root applied to sample sizes when weighting. Highlight ribbon is of 95% confidence interval of local regression standard error (not polling margin of error).
Mainstreet specifically flipped its sign over the past week.
Nanos shows a big LPC advantage over the same period, though https://nanos.co/lpc-44-8-cpc-37-8-ndp-8-8-bq-5-5-gp-1-9-ppc-1-1-tracking-ending-april-13-2025/
If you aren't a sheep who believes in honeymoon polls, 3:1 odds on Pierre might seem like a good bet. But what if I said you can do twice that well betting on the Tumbles Financial Complex?
For a limited time only we at the Tumbles Financial Complex are offering to SEX YOUR MANA
https://manifold.markets/Tumbles/will-tumbles-ever-be-late-to-pay-ba#ihtkmdbphl
oh yea the actual money markets are so short on pierre https://polymarket.com/event/next-prime-minster-of-canada?tid=1744470873434
@PeterNjeim oh yea the manifold markets are so short on pierre https://manifold.markets/PeterNjeim/who-will-be-the-next-prime-minister-f13eee1bee08?r=VHVtYmxlcw
@PeterNjeim no but if u look at the books theres just a rogue trader going long on the conserative
https://polymarket.com/profile/0x8b5a7da2fdf239b51b9c68a2a1a35bb156d200f2?tab=activity
his books make no sense, hes just buying randomly and pushing the percents up. so its a rogue.
no way this is an insider info type thing
