Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, before end of July 31, 2025, both Israel and Hamas officially announce a ceasefire and hostage exchange agreement. The announcement must be made through official channels, such as government press releases or statements from recognized spokespersons. If no such agreement is announced by the specified date, the market will resolve to "No."
Background
As of early June 2025, negotiations between Israel and Hamas have been ongoing, with various proposals and amendments being discussed. Hamas has recently proposed changes to a U.S.-backed temporary ceasefire plan, seeking a permanent ceasefire, Israeli troop withdrawal, and unrestricted humanitarian aid to Gaza. In exchange, Hamas has offered to release 10 hostages and the remains of 18 others for over 1,200 Palestinian prisoners. However, U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff has deemed Hamas's response "totally unacceptable." (reuters.com)
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has confirmed agreement with the original U.S. proposal and accused Hamas of persistent rejection. Meanwhile, Israel's military operations in Gaza continue, with recent claims of the death of Hamas Gaza chief Mohammad Sinwar. The humanitarian situation in Gaza has severely worsened under an Israeli blockade, with aid looting driven by desperation and famine risks highlighted by UN agencies. (reuters.com)
Former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak has urged current leadership to support a U.S.-backed hostage release and Gaza ceasefire deal, aligning with Donald Trump's vision for a normalized Middle East. Barak criticizes Prime Minister Netanyahu for prioritizing political survival over national security and moral responsibility, accusing him of prolonging the Gaza conflict to avoid legal and political repercussions. (time.com)
Considerations
Traders should monitor official statements from both Israeli and Hamas representatives, as well as reports from credible news outlets, to stay informed about the progress of negotiations. The complex political dynamics and humanitarian concerns in the region may influence the likelihood of an agreement being reached within the specified timeframe.
1,000
3.00Hamas agrees to release 10 hostages as part of ceasefire talks
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/jul/08/qatar-talks-gaza-ceasefire-netanyahu-trump-washington-visit
Qatar spokesperson: "I don’t think that I can give any timeline at the moment, but I can say right now that we will need time for this."
Hamas isn't going to agree to any of these, so I don't see a ceasefire happening anytime soon.
@TimothyJohnson5c16
you should here more about what actual Gazan think about this, before you say "theyll never agree to willingly".
@CarmelHadar Do you think a significant number of Gazans will move to another country by the end of the year? I haven't asked any of them personally, but that would contradict everything that I understand about the conflict.
Yes, I do think so. I follow Gazan tweets on x for over a year and a half now, and I can tell you that there are a non negligible quantites of Gazans that will happily leave for a beteer future, once an opertuninty will come.
@CarmelHadar According to one Israeli source, around 36k people have left Gaza, though Hamas has tried to prevent them:
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/407390
I guess you could call that non-negligible, but I don't think it changes the prospects for a ceasefire.
When I say non negligible I mean in hundreds thousands.
Yes tens of thousands already left, and the motivation just increased (judging by tweets) before the last operation (Merkavot Gideon) people didn't talk about it openly, they did it hiddenly. Now they don't even shy to post about it. The difference is abvious, and the dispair is visible.
@CarmelHadar I'd be happy to make a market for that if you know of a reliable data source.
@TimothyJohnson5c16
that can be an interesting one, but we need to find a good critieria, that will make it intresting. ill try to think on something.
and dispite i dont like conditional markets, i think it should be one ("if Rafah crossing will be open" \ "if gazan will be allowed to leave")
@PoliticalEconomyPK It doesn't sound like there's an actual deal yet. To me it sounds like they still have irreconcilable differences:
Israel to send team to Gaza talks despite Hamas demands, PM says
@PoliticalEconomyPK
Trump says Israel has agreed to terms for 60-day Gaza ceasefire
"It remains unclear whether the latest proposal addresses the core sticking point in the talks: Hamas' demand for a firm U.S. commitment that a 60-day ceasefire will lead to a permanent end to the war."
This has been the same sticking point for the last year. Netanyahu will trade for a few of the hostages if possible, but then he wants to go back to fighting until Hamas is utterly destroyed.
Hamas is unlikely to accept a temporary ceasefire like they did in January, because once the last hostages are returned they have no more leverage.
It's still possible that with enough pressure from Trump a temporary ceasefire could happen, but I don't think it's that obvious yet.
@Chumchulum
if so, why are the Iraninas are celebrating their victory???
(also, I think you are not fully aware the terms of the ceasfire with Iran)
@CarmelHadar Iranians are celebrating because their deterrence was proven effective in the 12-Day War. Gazans have no such deterrence; this is how Israel repeatedly violated the previous ceasefires.
@Chumchulum
Deterrence? What kind of deterrence after all their generals have been killed in a single day, and half of their missile arsenal has been destroyed? They only had 19 successful hits in the entire war, and only 5 hits in military bases.
Back to the point, can you show me which of the terms of the ceasefire that have been agreed upon have been violated, and what was the event that has violated it? (According to the terms that Trump said, Israel had 6 hours more than Iran had. Unfair? yes. But there were no other terms that has been agreed upon)
@CarmelHadar The ceasefire I was referring to that Israel broke was the previous ceasefire in place during the negotiations disrupted by "Rising Lion." Iranian deterrence was proven effective by two main factors; that Iran could now reach IDF sites like Camp Moshe Dayan and the Soroka Hospital, and that Israel's leadership begged America for its 12-Day War ceasefire.
@Chumchulum
thanks for clarifying about the ceasefire (normally i wouldn't call this a ceasefire, but Israel didi took the initiative here). there were no terms to break in this ceasefire, so it is strange to say they broke it.
about deterrence, Iran had any justification to hit hard (since Israel killed all their generals, and attacked nuclear facilities) - and they did try. but on the buttom line nothing much happened.
tbh, as Israeli, before the war i was detered by Iran, and now im like: "its not that bad at all, even Hezbollah was more annoying". so i think it is the oppositeof deterrence. so far we imagined what they are capable of, now we know, and we know its not that bad.