Will I find a German prediction market heavy-user to meet and talk about prediction markets for a journalistic text?
Basic
7
Ṁ86
Jan 31
55%
chance

I'm a German journalist currently researching a story on prediction markets, which will also include myself being active on the platforms (surrounding the German election in February 2025). To do this, it would be great to be able to meet a German who is a heavy-user on these platforms in person. Maybe I can find someone through this question.

  • Update 2025-17-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Heavy-user is defined as:

    • Using several platforms on a more or less daily basis

    • Considerable invested sums

    • Success

#World
#Elections
#Germany
#Meta-Forecasting
#Journalism
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A couple ideas to help find German users:

  • The users who voted/commented here

  • The users who voted elsewhere in Europe here

  • The users who've created questions in German, sometimes under the deutsch tag e.g.

@TheAllMemeingEye thanks so much!

What do you mean by heavy-user?

@rayman2000 obese

@rayman2000 The perfect person would be someone who is using several platforms on a more or less daily basis with considerable invested sums and success.

@Quentin If you're looking for real money users, things will be more difficult. Manifold doesn't offer sweepstakes in any EU country, probably just in most US states.

bought Ṁ5 NO from 58% to 55%

@Quentin Also, Manifold is an AI early adaptor, and the AI took your "perfect person" description and put it into the market description as "definition" of a "heavy user", which you might want to edit back, as it's probably too strong a wording

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