@RedzoneITG I think 97% is a little bit too high because even though we saw she looked great today, we have very little data on these women through a 9 stage race and specifically after such a hard climb effort with another stage to go.

It seems like a big lead but if PFP has trouble on the JP climb there is enough of a stage left to send her to Narnia (or anyone else)

No reaction from Vollering yet??!!?

@Eliza I’m so owned holy shit

@RedzoneITG everybody’s got a plan until they get punched in the mouth

I really want to believe, but I’m pretty sure she’s going to lose more time than she can gain back to Demi on Stage 7 :(

@RedzoneITG I think Stage 6 will tell us a lot on that front. If she can stay with the leaders or close I would have to give her at least 20% odds. If she can't it's basically single digits.

@Eliza omg

@RedzoneITG I might make a high-liquidity version of this with fewer answers, what do you think? I'll probably have to close it relatively early the same way I did with the mens one.

I'm thinking Demi, Kasia, Marlen, and Other as the 4 options, with 10k each??

It's really important to me to get the starting probabilities correct on that, so I will have to plan out how to create the answers without wasting liquidity, but people seem to enjoy trading against a big fat AMM. I'll try to get it done later today.

@Eliza I agree that those seem like the most reasonable set of options.

@RedzoneITG Here it is!

/Eliza/40k-liquidity-2025-tour-de-france-f

manifesting this, imagine the hype of the peloton discord

@RedzoneITG According to the news article it sounded like they would plan on Kim for GC. But depending on how things play out, maybe Sarah could be in contention for a stage win on Stage 8? Many of the other stages feature descending after the last climb which would not favor her.

@Eliza GC for KLC is a surprise to me. I feel like this Tour is really going to reward pure mountain climbing prowess since it has (the hard version of) Madeleine as well as the Joux-Plane stage, and KLC is strong but I don't think she's a pure mountain climber. That's why I think Kasia is still second favorite as well.

So far this season, I haven't seen anything that indicates AvdB is in this discussion. The climbing level is just not there. YET.

@Eliza To be fair, I also haven’t seen anything that indicates anybody other than Demi Vollering is in this discussion if she shows up healthy, but you never know what can happen in cycling.

@RedzoneITG Teams gonna team! You never know.

Carrefour de l’Arbre is pretty different from the Col de la Madeleine but I’m hyped regardless

@RedzoneITG she's got a chance!!!

@RedzoneITG Okay, well, she's at least involved in the conversation. Picking up some Yes shares.

@Eliza I still think she's facing an uphill battle to take on Demi at the Tour, especially with big climbs like Madeleine and Joux-Plane where (I think) Demi should be favored, but it does look like a realistic possibility now