Resolves as YES if we have built a fusion reactor that has run continuously for at least 24 hours prior to January 1st 2031 at engineering breakeven (Q_E >= 1).
Questions with the same criteria:
Will we get fusion reactors before 2025?1%
Will we get fusion reactors before 2026?4%
Will we get fusion reactors before 2027?6%
Will we get fusion reactors before 2028?16%
Will we get fusion reactors before 2029?20%
Will we get fusion reactors before 2030?20%
Will we get fusion reactors before 2031?27% (this question)
Will we get fusion reactors before 2032?34%
Will we get fusion reactors before 2033?36%
Will we get fusion reactors before 2034?42%
Will we get fusion reactors before 2035?50%
Will we get fusion reactors before 2036?53%
Will we get fusion reactors before 2037?55%
Will we get fusion reactors before 2038?62%
Will we get fusion reactors before 2039?64%
Will we get fusion reactors before 2040?71%
Will we get fusion reactors before 2041?70%
Numeric market:
What year do we get fusion reactors?
Other reference points for fusion reactors:
Will we get AGI before we get fusion reactors?57%
Will we get fusion reactors before a human walks on Mars?50%
Will we get a cure for cancer before we get fusion reactors?23%
Other questions for 2031:
Will we get AGI before 2031?63%
Will we get ASI before 2031?33%
Will a human walk on the Moon again before 2031?76%
Will we get room temperature superconductors before 2031?17%
Will we discover alien life before 2031?13%
Will 1M humanoid robots be manufactured before 2031?70%
Will a significant AI generated meme occur before 2031?92%
Will a human walk on Mars before 2031?10%
Will we get a cure for cancer before 2031?15%
Will the Dancing Plague return before 2031?17%
Full VR Brain Computer Interface before 2031?13%
Discovery of matter outside our 3D space before 2031?17%
Will AI extend English before 2031?53%
Will we get Rouge AI before 2031?5%
Different countries:
Will the USA acquire a fusion reactor before 2031?36%
Will China acquire a fusion reactor before 2031?33%
Will the UK acquire a fusion reactor before 2031?23%
Will Nauru acquire a fusion reactor before 2031?3%
Engineering breakeven is defined here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fusion_energy_gain_factor#Engineering_breakeven
The fusion reactor must have been built by human civilization or one of its descendants in order to qualify in the context of this question.