This market will settle as YES if at least three individuals that Trump nominates for cabinet positions that must be confirmed by the Senate are either withdrawn or voted down in the Senate. Cabinet officials refers to the 15 heads of government agencies, along with cabinet-level officials, which for the purposes of this market includes the Administrator of the EPA, Director of National Intelligence, Director of OMB, Director of CIA, United States Trade Representative, Ambassador to the UN, Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, Administrator of the SBA, and Director of OSTP.
A nomination occurs as soon as President Trump announces an intention to nominate someone. No other step is necessary to be taken. No official step must be taken to withdraw a nominee either. Credible reporting that the administration will not longer be pursuing the nomination is enough.
This market will settle as NO as soon as all the relevant positions are confirmed, or if the conditions of YES have not been met by March 31, 2025.
The nominees that fail need not be all nominated for different positions. If, for example, Trump has three Attorney General nominees that fail, this market will resolve as YES.
If Donald Trump does not become president or stops being president, this market resolves according to what happens to the nominees of whoever happens to be president during the relevant time period. The nominees of two or more people serving as president will be counted together. If, for example, Trump appoints an AG who is withdrawn and then Vance becomes president and two of his nominees are withdrawn, this market will settle as YES.
1,000
3.00The Washington Post just published an overview of the picks by their editorial board. They believe that four of twenty-three should be nixed. https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/interactive/2025/trump-nominees-confirmation-hearings-editorial-board/
(I have no faith in the media’s ability to swing this, just thought it was interesting and relevant)
@stardust you are way too confident, polymarket thinks it's 25% and they aren't leftist at all
(although slightly different resolution criteria but close enough afaik)
@Odoacre Waiting for the market to go back up before I do so, otherwise other markets are more profitable. I have a pretty big limit order up on an Israel market, for instance.
What is this "poly market thinks its blah blah blah" logic. You're arguing like a woman. By that logic no one should ever bet on polymarket ever because obviously the market can never be wrong. Probably around half of people who bet beat the market and the other half (mostly liberals) don't.
I'll be waiting to reply to this once this market resolves NO.
@stardust feeling great about my NO bet, always knew that these spineless cowards would bend over for Trump
@polymathematic The market you linked includes recess appointments - this market does not. I believe that the Senate will reject Hegseth, even if the president-elect recess-appoints him.
@Gameknight To clarify my point:
This market will settle as YES if at least three individuals that Trump nominates for cabinet positions that must be confirmed by the Senate are either withdrawn or voted down in the Senate.
https://abcnews.go.com/538/trumps-cabinet-woes-back-earlier/story?id=116599520
Sect. of Defense counts, right? (I know he's not been withdrawn yet, I'm just checking in advance)
@Strikehydra yes.
"A nomination occurs as soon as President Trump announces an intention to nominate someone. No other step is necessary to be taken. No official step must be taken to withdraw a nominee either. Credible reporting that the administration will not longer be pursuing the nomination is enough."
@stardust I mean, 35% doesn’t really feel like “it’s NOT happening”. Feels more like, “eh, it probably won’t happen.” Push this puppy down to 25% at least!
@Jessef0226 Difference is for that one failing in the Senate isn't enough (recess appointments) and for this one it is. Both are vastly underpriced for NO
Hegseth fell to 35% on polymarket after
https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/pete-hegseths-secret-history