Will at least three of Trump's cabinet nominees fail?
Will at least three of Trump's cabinet nominees fail?
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resolved Feb 12
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This market will settle as YES if at least three individuals that Trump nominates for cabinet positions that must be confirmed by the Senate are either withdrawn or voted down in the Senate. Cabinet officials refers to the 15 heads of government agencies, along with cabinet-level officials, which for the purposes of this market includes the Administrator of the EPA, Director of National Intelligence, Director of OMB, Director of CIA, United States Trade Representative, Ambassador to the UN, Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, Administrator of the SBA, and Director of OSTP.

A nomination occurs as soon as President Trump announces an intention to nominate someone. No other step is necessary to be taken. No official step must be taken to withdraw a nominee either. Credible reporting that the administration will not longer be pursuing the nomination is enough.

This market will settle as NO as soon as all the relevant positions are confirmed, or if the conditions of YES have not been met by March 31, 2025.

The nominees that fail need not be all nominated for different positions. If, for example, Trump has three Attorney General nominees that fail, this market will resolve as YES.

If Donald Trump does not become president or stops being president, this market resolves according to what happens to the nominees of whoever happens to be president during the relevant time period. The nominees of two or more people serving as president will be counted together. If, for example, Trump appoints an AG who is withdrawn and then Vance becomes president and two of his nominees are withdrawn, this market will settle as YES.

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22h

can resolve now

7d

Does Elise Stefanik count?

7d

@NicholasHishawCZNn Yes; Hanania confirmed in description that Ambassador to the UN is a Cabinet-level position. So now the market resolves YES iff Trump nominates someone and then withdraws them by March 31.

@RichardHanania Krastios has been confirmed. Now even if Stefanik isn't that's only 2 failing. Resolves No.

https://www.axios.com/pro/tech-policy/2025/03/25/michael-kratsios-confirmed-to-lead-ostp

8d

@HillaryClinton technically there's still the possibility that someone is fired, Trump puts forward a replacement nominee, and Trump then withdraws that replacement nominee... on two separate occasions... all within the next 5 days. I think it's safe to resolve YES.

@ZaneMiller Non-zero chance this happens with whoever he's got as his replacement for Stefanik (granted, it's a low chance, but it's not zero).

14d

We are just waiting on OSTP and the UN right? Only 2 left?

So if Krastios is confirmed, this resolves No, since even if Stefanik failed, it doesn't matter.

21d

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/13/health/cdc-weldon-confirmation-hearing.html

I don't know that we could call the CDC Director a member of Trump's cabinet, but just in case...

bought αΉ€1,000 NO21d

@PensivePlatypus CDC's under HHS. CDC director's never been in the cabinet as far as i'm aware

1mo

The sweepstakes market for this question has been resolved to partial as we are shutting down sweepstakes. Please read the full announcement here. The mana market will continue as usual.

Only markets closing before March 3rd will be left open for trading and will be resolved as usual.

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sold αΉ€152 YES1mo

Haha, I expected to win, but not this hard. I was going to trade on volatility from tulsis rough road

opened a αΉ€8,000 NO at 16% order1mo

@MIMIRMAGNVS also sweepstakes marekt hasn't corrected btw, so free money for anyone who reads this comment

Recent developments might cause even some 100% certain picks to be up in the air if enough GOP team up with dems.

bought π•Š5.00 NO

Gabbard and RFK have their confirmation hearings at the same time on Thursday this week!

filled a αΉ€250 NO at 20% order2mo

@Marnix Matt Gaetz is still the only failure so far, right?

filled a αΉ€100 NO at 15% order2mo

@TimothyJohnson5c16 That's correct, yeah

shouldn't this market be rising more, since the Gabbard market is falling ? Or does it not matter

@zsig This market has always been incongruent with the markets on specific people in my opinion.

2mo

Hegseth was the most problematic of all them and the most likely one to not have been confirmed. With him being confirmed, what does that signal to you?

2mo

@MIMIRMAGNVS Gabbard I’d say is by far the most problematic. The cult. The pro-Assad stuff. The parroting of Russian and Assad propaganda about regime atrocities in Syria. The β€œaccidental” trip to Syria. The smearing of the white helmets. Etc. the senate knows she might cripple 5eyes just by being in place (other countries will stop sharing with her), which is a big security risk for the USA.

2mo

@Pjfkh fair enough

2mo

@Pjfkh Absolutely. I think Gabbard was always the most problematic, followed by RFK, and then Hegseth. Any senator that votes for RFK will provide attack ad fodder for all the crazy stuff RFK has said / done, and thus any purple state senator will try to avoid. The conventional wisdom is that he gets through, but if so, in my view it's likely by the bare minimum. Virtually everything Gabbard has ever said about foreign policy is likely problematic to the median Republican in the Senate. The cult stuff is also bizarre and problematic, and her extreme changes in views means that it's unlikely people really trust anything she says. That said, no GOP senator wants to pick a fight with MAGA if they can avoid.


For Hegseth, if you read the police reports it was clear he was falsely accused.

2mo

Hegseth confirmed. Seems very unlikely that a safe number of republican senators will join in voting against Gabbard or RFK jr. They would have to stick their neck out collectively. If it was just two they will not risk drawing the backlash.

2mo

@brianwang that’s so bonkers to me. Hegseth is literally a DEI hire who only got job cause of his race. He has no qualifications for this job whatsoever.

2mo

@brianwang I think Hegseth is the most problematic to people who follow politics closely, but that other nominees such as RFK Jr may be more problematic to ordinary folks. Like, I'd be much more comfortable if I had to explain to my mother-in-law why RFK Jr might be a bad pick, whereas Hegseth had enough military experience and credentials to look good enough. Hegseth has also been loyal to Trump over a long period, whereas RFK and Gabbard are newcomers. Thus, Republican senators may feel like they have more political cover to vote against those nominees.

I also get the impression that the Democrats scored some political points with their late-stage vigorous opposition to Hegseth and will be emboldened to oppose other nominees even more vigorously.

filled a αΉ€5 YES at 25% order2mo

@jb456 Additionally, Mitch McConnell broke with MAGA on Hegseth. MITCH MCF*CKINCONNEL. If even he can see reason, I'm sure others can too.

opened a αΉ€500 YES at 21% order2mo

Willing to give a favorable exit of 21% to any YES holders, or anyone who wants more NO at this price point. I remain unchanged in my opinion that this market should be at 3%, but there is a market on whether I get banned this month which is quite contentious. Hence, it makes no sense not to bet NO there for me.

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