The sweepstakes market for this question has been resolved to partial as we are shutting down sweepstakes. Please read the full announcement here. The mana market will continue as usual.

Only markets closing before March 3rd will be left open for trading and will be resolved as usual.

Users will be able to cashout or donate their entire sweepcash balance, regardless of whether it has been won in a sweepstakes or not, by March 28th (for amounts above our minimum threshold of $25).

Haha, I expected to win, but not this hard. I was going to trade on volatility from tulsis rough road

@MIMIRMAGNVS also sweepstakes marekt hasn't corrected btw, so free money for anyone who reads this comment

Recent developments might cause even some 100% certain picks to be up in the air if enough GOP team up with dems.

Gabbard and RFK have their confirmation hearings at the same time on Thursday this week!

@Marnix Matt Gaetz is still the only failure so far, right?

@TimothyJohnson5c16 That's correct, yeah

shouldn't this market be rising more, since the Gabbard market is falling ? Or does it not matter

@zsig This market has always been incongruent with the markets on specific people in my opinion.

Hegseth was the most problematic of all them and the most likely one to not have been confirmed. With him being confirmed, what does that signal to you?

@MIMIRMAGNVS Gabbard I’d say is by far the most problematic. The cult. The pro-Assad stuff. The parroting of Russian and Assad propaganda about regime atrocities in Syria. The “accidental” trip to Syria. The smearing of the white helmets. Etc. the senate knows she might cripple 5eyes just by being in place (other countries will stop sharing with her), which is a big security risk for the USA.

@Pjfkh fair enough

@Pjfkh Absolutely. I think Gabbard was always the most problematic, followed by RFK, and then Hegseth. Any senator that votes for RFK will provide attack ad fodder for all the crazy stuff RFK has said / done, and thus any purple state senator will try to avoid. The conventional wisdom is that he gets through, but if so, in my view it's likely by the bare minimum. Virtually everything Gabbard has ever said about foreign policy is likely problematic to the median Republican in the Senate. The cult stuff is also bizarre and problematic, and her extreme changes in views means that it's unlikely people really trust anything she says. That said, no GOP senator wants to pick a fight with MAGA if they can avoid.

For Hegseth, if you read the police reports it was clear he was falsely accused.

Hegseth confirmed. Seems very unlikely that a safe number of republican senators will join in voting against Gabbard or RFK jr. They would have to stick their neck out collectively. If it was just two they will not risk drawing the backlash.

@brianwang that’s so bonkers to me. Hegseth is literally a DEI hire who only got job cause of his race. He has no qualifications for this job whatsoever.

@brianwang I think Hegseth is the most problematic to people who follow politics closely, but that other nominees such as RFK Jr may be more problematic to ordinary folks. Like, I'd be much more comfortable if I had to explain to my mother-in-law why RFK Jr might be a bad pick, whereas Hegseth had enough military experience and credentials to look good enough. Hegseth has also been loyal to Trump over a long period, whereas RFK and Gabbard are newcomers. Thus, Republican senators may feel like they have more political cover to vote against those nominees.

I also get the impression that the Democrats scored some political points with their late-stage vigorous opposition to Hegseth and will be emboldened to oppose other nominees even more vigorously.

@jb456 Additionally, Mitch McConnell broke with MAGA on Hegseth. MITCH MCF*CKINCONNEL. If even he can see reason, I'm sure others can too.

Willing to give a favorable exit of 21% to any YES holders, or anyone who wants more NO at this price point. I remain unchanged in my opinion that this market should be at 3%, but there is a market on whether I get banned this month which is quite contentious. Hence, it makes no sense not to bet NO there for me.

polymarket is down to 13% for this

@brianwang McConnell could be a no as well.

Murkowski and Collins are against Hegseth.

@Bruce54df The Reddit Caucus

this is pretty close to my credence ,ergo I should sell but I don't feel like it. Its grim for me

The Washington Post just published an overview of the picks by their editorial board. They believe that four of twenty-three should be nixed. https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/interactive/2025/trump-nominees-confirmation-hearings-editorial-board/

(I have no faith in the media’s ability to swing this, just thought it was interesting and relevant)

Manifold leftists make me feel smart again. The real odds of this market should be around 3%

@stardust you are way too confident, polymarket thinks it's 25% and they aren't leftist at all

(although slightly different resolution criteria but close enough afaik)

@UlyssesB That's what people were saying when I was putting all my mana on Trump

@stardust everyone knows if you were right once, you'll be right always. You should buy down to 3%

@Odoacre Waiting for the market to go back up before I do so, otherwise other markets are more profitable. I have a pretty big limit order up on an Israel market, for instance.

What is this "poly market thinks its blah blah blah" logic. You're arguing like a woman. By that logic no one should ever bet on polymarket ever because obviously the market can never be wrong. Probably around half of people who bet beat the market and the other half (mostly liberals) don't.

I'll be waiting to reply to this once this market resolves NO.

So liberals... how we feeling?

@stardust feeling great about my NO bet, always knew that these spineless cowards would bend over for Trump

@UlyssesB "This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least three individuals (including Gaetz) picked by Donald Trump for cabinet-level positions requiring Senate confirmation are withdrawn (failing a Senate confirmation vote will not alone qualify). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”."
Much broader bet. Only 2 have to fail since Gaetz already counts and it could be through withdrawals too.