Political party will win on next elections & who will the next prime minister

Resolution Criteria

General elections are scheduled to be held in Thailand on 8 February 2026. Official results must be announced no later than April 9, 2026. Following the certification of results, the new Parliament must convene within 15 days to elect its speakers and formally vote for the next Prime Minister. Political parties are permitted to submit up to three prime ministerial candidates to be considered by the new Parliament.

This market will resolve based on: (1) which party wins the most seats in the House of Representatives, and (2) which individual is elected Prime Minister by the new Parliament. Resolution will be determined by official announcements from Thailand's Election Commission and Parliament.

Background

Between the 2023 and 2026 elections, Thailand had three PMs from two parties succeed each other. Srettha Thavisin lasted 358 days but was dismissed by the Constitutional Court on 14 August 2024 over his appointment of Pichit Chuenban to his cabinet. He was succeeded by Paetongtarn Shinawatra from Pheu Thai who was PM for little over a year but was suspended on 1 July 2025. The Constitutional Court removed her as PM on 29 August.

The post-election picture is expected to be dominated by a fierce contest among three major parties — a "Three Kingdoms" of Thai politics — battling for the top three spots. Thailand's post-election landscape remains a three-way contest between the People's Party, Bhumjaithai and Pheu Thai. Opinion polls consistently show the People's Party is Thailand's most popular political party and is likely to win the upcoming election. The People's Party moved early by unveiling three prime ministerial candidates on November 23, 2025. Party leader Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut was named as the No. 1 prime ministerial candidate, alongside Sirikanya Tansakun, the deputy leader and a public policy specialist, and Weerayut Kanchoochat, also a deputy leader and a key figure on economic policy.

Considerations

The prime minister is selected through a combined vote of both legislative chambers, granting the Senate a powerful role in the process. This means the party winning the most seats does not automatically determine the prime minister—coalition-building and Senate votes are critical. The border conflict with Cambodia could change electoral politics in Thailand, as voters could rally around the flag and abandon—at least temporarily—some of their support for economic and military reforms.