Will Thailand and Cambodia enter into a hot war in 2025?
35
Ṁ3317
2026
10%
chance

https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/thailand-cambodia-border-dispute-07-24-25-intl-hnk

This market resolves Yes if, by the end of January 2026, the wikipedia entry for 2025 shows a conflict between Thailand and Cambodia as having surpassed 1000 deaths and entered into the Minor Wars category on this page: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_ongoing_armed_conflicts

Any entry that features both countries as beligerents and represents their current, active participation will count. Otherwise, this market will resolve No. The extra month is to allow time for wikipedia to be updated with late 2025 numbers. Feel free to ask clarifying questions in the comments.

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