What will happen during the fourth run of Claude Plays Pokemon?

101

Ṁ71k

Aug 15

98.6%

Claude adds 18 or more Pokemon to his Pokedex (surpassing his completion from the previous run)

98.2%

Manifest begins

95%

Another model defeats the Champion before Claude (in a run started after Claude 4 was released)

89%

Claude finishes Rock Tunnel but takes longer than it took him to beat Mt. Moon the first time (50 hours)

89%

Claude reaches Lavender Town

85%

Another model beats the Champion (following criteria like https://manifold.markets/Sketchy/in-progress-will-an-llm-become-a-po)

84%

SPIKE reaches level 25

77%

Claude stands next to a sleeping Snorlax

76%

Tumbles is late to pay back a loan

62%

Claude evolves SPIKE into Nidoking

61%

Claude enters Erika's gym

51%

Claude reaches Lavender Town before step 55000

49%

Claude evolves wings into Fearow

45%

Claude enters Mt. Moon after step 20000

44%

Claude catches Weedle

42%

Claude gambles in the Game Corner

41%

Claude gives a thirsty guard a drink

41%

Claude's two highest level Pokémon are more than 30 levels apart by step 100000.

40%

Claude obtains HM05 Flash

39%

Claude renames a Pokémon

https://www.twitch.tv/claudeplayspokemon

Claude Plays Pokemon is a Twitch stream where the AI chatbot Claude attempts to beat Pokemon Red. Once the game is reset, all remaining answers resolve NO, even if the stream continues with a new game.

I am N/Aing anything that is annoying to resolve. If I have to pore over multiple days of twitch VODs to figure out which way an answer resolves, I am not going to bother.

Changes to the harness between 3.7's runs and this one: https://docs.google.com/document/d/e/2PACX-1vRIsu2pLI21W4KjfYbN13or8E-8cvJYw570wGMEp4UQU63ZhEh9FPGgj2ark8Yk7Vyrtt9MWq3jnn4h/pub

Some relevant milestones from the second run:

Reached Pewter City between steps 5000-5500
Escaped Mt. Moon at step 21496
Reached Vermilion City between steps 30500-32000
Obtained HM01 Cut between steps 55000-60000
Defeated Surge around step 61000
Obtained HM05 Flash around step 100000? (Unsure)

Update 2025-05-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the answer 'Claude uses Dig on the SS Anne', the creator has specified that this refers to Dig being used outside of battle.

Update 2025-05-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the answer 'Claude enters Mt. Moon after step 20000':
- This condition is met if Claude enters Mt. Moon at any point after step 20,000, including re-entries.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#AI

#Gaming

#Technical AI Timelines

#Pokemon

#Claude

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@SaviorofPlant How does this resolve if he gets Pikachu as a Game Corner reward?

bought Ṁ20 YES

@WoahD_ resolves NO in that scenario, he has to catch a wild one

@SaviorofPlant timer for this started about an hour ago

bought Ṁ650 YES

@SaviorofPlant at 38000 steps so the 40,000 should resolve yes

Claude has a BICYCLE. Can probably find clip if needed.

bought Ṁ350 YES

@SaviorofPlant Drowzee caught!

https://www.twitch.tv/claudeplayspokemon/clip/ScaryFriendlyAlbatrossChocolateRain-YlyrLJ-DDckZuql8

I don’t know if Claude is AGI, but I’m pretty sure twitch chat is not GI.

bought Ṁ100 YES

@SaviorofPlant Spearow obtained and traded for Farfetch’d!

sold Ṁ119 NO

@SaviorofPlant

CC hallucinated that Oddish cannot learn CUT and recommended Farfetch'd while Claude was in a battle with a wild Oddish

bought Ṁ100 YES

@SaviorofPlant This is 755 steps away now and we are stuck trying to find the exit on the bow for now.

bought Ṁ947 YES

@SaviorofPlant I sure hope this includes using it in battle, because I just dumped a 1k mana on this.

bought Ṁ10 NO

@UnspecifiedPerson gooooood question

@UnspecifiedPerson oh i meant outside of battle but the answer doesnt clearly say that

if anyone bought a bunch of no i can N/A for ambiguity, otherwise i can resolve YES

@SaviorofPlant I bought no. I’d rather you N/A for ambiguity than resolve yes. It kinda sucks, because I correctly understood your intention and would have made a tidy profit on this resolving No.

@Driftloom my bad i should have included the phrase "outside of battle"

@SaviorofPlant To clarify, this is if he re-enters Mt. Moon at ANY point after step 20k?

@Driftloom yes

@SaviorofPlant None of the members of Claude's team can learn Cut, so he will be unable to get into Surge's gym after getting the HM.

I believe Claude's only options now (after failing to catch a Paras in Mt. Moon) are to either catch an Oddish, or trade a Spearow for a Farfetch'd.

edit: he can also get a weedle on route 24 and evolve it to beedrill

reposted

A new AI has joined the race, someone has set up o3 with the Gemini harness: https://www.twitch.tv/gpt_plays_pokemon

@SaviorofPlant How about a "Claude catches any Glitch Pokemon (MissingNo or others)" category?

bought Ṁ50 NO

@Robincvgr The timer begins now:

@SaviorofPlant Not looking good.

sold Ṁ5 NO

@SaviorofPlant should resolve NO

This version might just be worse than the previous one imo

bought Ṁ100 YES

@Balasar claude went the right way to escape the forest immediately after you posted this. please keep posting

@SaviorofPlant Claude will definitely not beeline through Mt. Moon, find the Silph Scope, and develop a mental model of the Safari Zone good enough to beat it. Also, it definitely won’t beat the champion.

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