What will happen in June as part of the Trump/Musk breakup?
190
Ṁ18k
resolved Jul 3
Resolved
YES
Trump mentions Musk's drug use
Resolved
YES
Musk apologizes to Trump
Resolved
YES
Musk announces plans to form a new political party
Resolved
YES
J.D. Vance criticizes Elon Musk
Resolved
N/A
Musk accuses Trump of ties to Jeffrey Epstein
Resolved
NO
Musk endorses the Democratic party
Resolved
NO
Trump issues an executive order to cancel a SpaceX or Tesla contract
Resolved
NO
DOGE is terminated
Resolved
NO
Musk is indicted
Resolved
NO
Musk's social media platform restricts Trump's account
Resolved
NO
Trump gives Musk a derisive nickname
Resolved
NO
Trump and Elon are seen shaking hands

i will N/A anything that occurred in june before the answer was created or anything not related to the breakup

  • Update 2025-06-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding the potential answer 'Musk's social media platform restricts Trump's account':

    • Reducing visibility of Trump's posts can count as such a restriction.

    • This will only count if the visibility reduction was not already occurring sometimes before this feud started.

  • Update 2025-06-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has stated that comments by JD Vance in a June 7 interview count as criticism for the purposes of this market. In the interview, Vance called Musk's actions a "huge mistake" and "not helpful".

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@SaviorofPlant haven't paid much attention to this market since I made it but Vance gave an interview on June 7 with some light criticism, interspersed with praise

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/jun/07/jd-vance-musk-trump-feud

"“This stuff is just not helpful,” Vance said in response to another post shared by Musk calling for Trump to be impeached and replaced with Vance.

“It’s totally insane. The president is doing a good job.”"

"JD Vance said Elon Musk was making a “huge mistake” going after Donald Trump in a storm of bitter and inflammatory social media posts after a falling-out between the two men."

feel free to try and convince me this isn't "criticizing" i guess, i won't trade on this option

sold Ṁ156 NO

@SaviorofPlant How would this option resolve if you were to resolve it right now?

@SaviorofPlant he didn't criticise Musk, he criticised ""this stuff".

@Lorelai I think that's semantics. It's fair to say Vance has levelled criticism at Musk and his behaviour.

@JPD uh everyone debates semantics when markets are being resolved, you sound new here.

@Lorelai The people of Manifold have weighed in and, without the context of this market, nobody agrees with you: https://manifold.markets/SaviorofPlant/does-saying-someone-made-a-mistake?r=U2F2aW9yb2ZQbGFudA

@SaviorofPlant 14 entire votes

👌😂

@ian why was this resolved YES?

@dp9000 and OP hasn't asked me to unresolve, and instead liked my comment https://manifold.markets/SaviorofPlant/what-will-happen-in-june-as-part-of#564ra6ztj36

@ian Do you know what "announces plans" means? It isn't the same thing as "mentions". Total BS resolution.

@FrederickNorris Announce plans doesn't mean giving an actual 'plan', it means an unofficial announcement or statement. Elon did that.

@Sahaj Please provide a source for his announcement of plans to start a new political party.

Musk hasn't actually apologised to Trump yet, this shouldn't be at 96%

@TimothyJohnson5c16 Not for me. Saying he regrets his posts doesn't necessarily mean he actually feels apologetic towards Trump, he could regret it for a million reasons unrelated to Trump specifically

bought Ṁ15 YES

@bluballoon as close as an apology that were gonna get given his ego and general personality...

@dgga Fair enough. It's up to @SaviorofPlant to decide how he wants to interpret it then

@TimothyJohnson5c16 Yes, it is an apology.

bought Ṁ10 YES

@SaviorofPlant

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2025/06/07/trump-elon-musk-fight-behind-scenes/

Rattled in the wake of Elon Musk’s public attacks and apparent call for his impeachment, Trump worked the phones, debriefing close confidants and casual acquaintances alike. His former ally was “a big-time drug addict,” Trump said at one point as he tried to make sense of Musk’s behavior, according to a person with knowledge of the call, who like others interviewed for this article spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive matters.

@BenM This should resolve YES

bought Ṁ30 YES

@SaviorofPlant https://x.com/MarioNawfal/status/1931120397182787782 Retweeted by Musk.

Several other tweets as well. This says "announces plans" not "implements plans". I think this counts.

@JaySocrates Hmm, that doesn't seem like an actual plan to me yet.

bought Ṁ20 YES

@JaySocrates concept of a plan

(I think it counts though)

@TimothyJohnson5c16 so a normal musk plan

@Lorelai yeah it should count. prompt says "announces" which is general enough to fit what he did.

@Sahaj agree, not sure why not resolved to "yes"

opened a Ṁ30 YES at 17% order

oh I may have resolved that before Savior of Plant weighed in, if you want it undone lmk.

@ian Should be undone. He hasn't announced a whisper of a plan.

@FrederickNorris Elon is always announcing half baked plans that have no chance of coming through including the infamous "funding secured" tweet. This is an announcement of a plan in my book.

@BenM So if I say "Should we go out to eat tonight?" that's announcing my plans to eat a restaurant meal? Gtfo.

@FrederickNorris he literally called it The America Party, it wasn't just a question. It is tantamount to stating "Nobu" after tweeting "the people have spoken, we are eating a restaurant meal tonight".

@Lorelai I'm trying to be intellectually honest here. He did not announce plans to start a new political party, period.

@FrederickNorris "intellectually honest" lol this is an app to gamble with fake money, stop being pretentious

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