Will any LLM released in the next year double my coding productivity? | Manifold

Will any LLM released in the next year double my coding productivity?

Basic

6

Ṁ111

Jan 1

24%

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Resolves YES if, on any day after July 20, 2024, I commit twice as much code as any day before that, while using an LLM released between July 20, 2024 and July 19, 2025.

I will not trade in this market. I will likely upgrade it to basic after the first next-generation LLM is actually released.

Update 2025-01-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The market compares the best day before July 20, 2024 to the best day after July 20, 2024.
- A YES resolution occurs if any day after July 20, 2024, using an LLM released between July 20, 2024 and July 19, 2025, results in committing twice as much code as the best day before July 20, 2024.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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Are you alternating your coding days; like odd days == no-AI, even days == AI?. Don't know how else to make sense of the description.

I find AI makes you optimistic that it holds the answers, and then you spend net more time fixing bugs; but comparing AI vs no AI days you still net code more as it tends to make you optimistic about getting stuff done vs laziness about tackling new projects...

@parhizj I missed this message. The market is comparing the best day before July 20 to the best day after July 20, with the idea that if any day beats the previous record, it's almost certainly because of a new model.

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