In twenty years, will the best evidence show very substantial (>one quarter) declines in fertility rate (relative to couples trying equally hard to conceive in the past) due to decreasing sperm count, in at least one country?
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Related to ACX post "Declining Sperm Count: Much More Than You Wanted To Know". Although this says "in at least one country", this is just about whether one country is able to detect it, and I will only mark it as true if it seems to be related to a global phenomenon; ie if there is a chemical spill in one country that causes its fertility to decrease, this will not count.
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I'm buying YES as a hedge/arbitrage to the https://manifold.markets/ScottAlexander/in-twenty-years-will-the-best-evide market, not because I think this is likely.
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