[Rock-Paper-Scissors] Will [other hand gesture] reach 10%?
5
Ṁ39k
in 7 hours
1.1%
Paper [resolves YES if scissors reaches 10%]
Resolved
YES
Scissors [resolves YES if rock reaches 10%]
Resolved
YES
Rock [resolves YES if paper reaches 10%]

Hand gestures resolve YES if the corresponding hand gesture reaches 10%, otherwise they resolve NO.

"Reach" = show a probability of 10.0% or less at any point before market close

  • Update 2025-11-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): This market will resolve immediately upon the condition being met (as soon as the creator gets to it), rather than waiting until market close.

  • Update 2025-11-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Multiple options can resolve YES: If multiple hand gestures reach below 10% , all such options will resolve YES

  • Update 2025-11-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): This market will resolve N/A (all trades will be cancelled and mana returned to traders).

  • Update 2025-11-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): This market will resolve N/A (all trades will be cancelled and mana returned to traders).

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@mods Unfortunately, rules were not clear. Can you please N/A this market (all options)?

Will exactly one option resolve YES? And will it be the first one whose criteria are satisfied?

@Fion I'm asking because I could imagine all three being pushed below 10% before you (the creator) get to it. Would all three then resolve YES?

@Fion Yes, in that case all three would resolve YES. But once the criterion for an option is met it would also be very profitable to keep that option above 10% (guaranteed 9x if you get filled)

@Simon74fe will you trade after the criteria are met and before resolving?

opened a Ṁ2,000 YES at 11% order

@Simon74fe I think it can resolve Paper now?

@Fion oops I mean scissors

@Simon74fe ah. Interesting. The remaining options stay open even after the first one to resolve is resolved? I did not realise this. 😅

opened a Ṁ30,000 NO at 10% order

@Fion Oh sorry, did not realize this was unclear from the market description. Should we N/A?

@Simon74fe I mean, I'd love it if you did, but I'm not best placed to impartially judge what's fair right now. :P

I guess I think the following:

  • With hindsight, what you did was clearly consistent with your criteria and clarifications. It was maybe a little bit contradicted by the AI summary, which said "this market" will resolve immediately as opposed to "the relevant option" will resolve immediately. But I should know better than to trust the AI summary.

  • Your criteria (and clarifications) were not fully clear, in the sense that it was possible for a reasonable person to misunderstand them.

  • I'm not sure whether your criteria were ambiguous or not. Maybe a rational impartial observer would say they were unambiguous and you resolved correctly. They feel ambiguous to me, but like I said, I'm biased.

  • Manifold is a game. This market is especially a game. I came to it thinking I'd outsmarted you and I could take your 2,000 mana limit order plus liquidity. Turned out I made a mistake and you outplayed me. Sure, it was your game and you had an advantage in that you perfectly understood your own criteria and I only imperfectly (and in this case critically mis-) understood them, but I didn't have to play.

I think ambiguous resolution criteria is a strong reason to resolve NA, but unclear resolution criteria are only a weak reason for NA, especially in a game-style market like this one.

I'm not going to complain, be sad, give you a bad review, or otherwise think less of you if you let the resolution stand, but if you did NA it, I'd consider that very magnanimous of you.

@Fion I think as a market creator I should not be rewarded for writing rules that are not completely clear. Let's N/A it

"Hand gestures resolve YES if the corresponding hand gesture reaches 10%"

Resolves YES immediately upon condition reached, or resolve YES only after market closes?


@AmmonLam Resolves immediately (as soon as I get to it)

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