Which active Manifold User will have the highest number of followers on Twitter at the end of 2024?
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Plus
14
Ṁ2442
resolved Jan 2
100%85%Other
0.5%
Patrick McKenzie - https://twitter.com/patio11

Please feel free to add any candidates you believe have a genuine chance of winning to the list. Be mindful not to spam other users and ensure to list each option in the format: Name - Twitter URL. I will consider any user who posts/likes a comment, starts a market or make a trade anytime in 2024 as an active user. If someone just signs up and doesn’t do anything they won’t count as active.

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@creator I believe this resolves to OTHER.

Matt Yglesias has more twitter followers than Joe Weisenthal, Aella, McKenzie, etc. he has fewer than vitalik, nate silver, & lex fridman, but I don't believe any of those qualify as "active users" in the market criteria.

(I'm not super confident Yglesias has the most, just that it's pretty easy to see he's ahead of those that are outside of the "Other" option)

@Ziddletwix I am not seeing any posts, markets or trades on that manifold account. Edit, nevermind, I see it now.

@BoltonBailey ? I see this one?

Do non active accounts resolve no or n/a?

@Soli Can you clarify, please?

@SirCryptomind I mean it’s a linked market, so presumably no right?

@TheAllMemeingEye one option resolves yes and everything else resolves no - thought this was obvious

@Soli ok, I was asking because it basically determines whether this is mostly about odds of being active or odds of having most followers

This is why I wish MC markets showed the "Type" like this:

Instead of clicking on the 3 dots.

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