Deepmind released the original GATO in November 2022. This market is asking when Deepmind will release the next model named GATO or a clear spiritual successor to it (as judged by me). For the latter, a spiritual successor would be a model trained to treat many different tasks (beyond language) as sequence prediction tasks.
All date ranges are inclusive on both ends and based on the EST time zone. So for example, if Deepmind releases the model on 12/31/2023, the market will resolve to choice 2. Also I will only resolve to one of the original 4 options, as they're designed to be mutually exclusive.
Note that if a non-Deepmind entity (including Google Brain) releases a model that qualifies, it doesn't count for the purpose of this market.
Update 2024-19-12 (PST): If Deepmind never releases a GATO 2 or qualifying spiritual successor, the market will resolve as N/A rather than defaulting to the last date option. (AI summary of creator comment)
1,000
3.00So we're approaching the point at which only one option is valid, but I also think it's fairly likely DM never releases a GATO 2 or something close enough to qualify. I didn't clearly specify what to do in that case in my description, so I'm between resolving N/A and resolving to "On or after 01/01/2025". N/A seems most accurate, but want to hear dissent if people think the latter is a better resolution.