I find it funny that there's almost as great a chance that a radio station will play a song as there is that Manifold will simply rate it a 5 or higher.

Manifold is quite picky, isn't it?

@KevinBlaw is going to be a thorn in the side of the YES voters, it appears.

I can consistently achieve scores of 4 now, and even 5, but like with the latest song, he pulled the average down from what would have been a 4.66 :)

@SteveSokolowski dude, 4 people voted! And I was sincere in my opinion that AI music sucks duck.

@KevinBlaw Unfortunately, nobody else in this poll agreed with you.

By the way, you've been strangely silent after I filed the latest lawsuit. You were constantly criticizing me about the Wells Fargo case, and yet now that I spent 220 hours on this latest complaint, you haven't said a word anywhere. What happened?

Or, are you the anonymous "law student" on X who posted a thread that picked apart the complaint with vitriolic criticism but who was slightly off in his understanding of most of the facts?

@SteveSokolowski awww. I think you missed me!

@KevinBlaw Of course I did, because you still didn't answer the question. For once, you're speechless.

I suspect that either:

1. You will never ever admit that the complaint is sensical, logically addresses defenses, and the case has a good chance of not being tossed; or

2. You aren't actually a lawyer and simply don't understand what all the legal terms in the complaint mean.

There might even be a combination of both.

@SteveSokolowski I have taken a small position that the case will survive a motion to dismiss. I tend to think it may get thrown out for another reason, like the inability to effectuate service, or that it gets transferred to a different venue, or a sua sponte dismissal. I would love to read what the "law student" wrote. I'm not a big twitter user.

@SteveSokolowski if the complaint gets dismissed and you never get any money, will you be contrite, or will you find a scapegoat?

@KevinBlaw Wait - wow! You actually think we filed a case that won't be dismissed! Blasphemy! I think God is going to send lightning down from Jupiter and blow up the planet.

Unfortunately, there is no market on this case to bet on, so you can't take mana from Norris, who still implies that judges can unilaterally just decide to end most cases on their own whims before they start.

Of course there's a chance we won't get any money. We spent probably 60 of those 220 hours we worked on the complaint running simulations. We are confident we know about the exact winrate percentage we lost by not being able to hire an attorney. I'm not sure who exactly would be scapegoated other than us in the case of a loss.

I'm not sure the guy is a law student, and I ended up not finishing reading his thread because he made some critical errors early in his analysis, and therefore I decided there was a higher probability for harm than good if I listened to his poor advice. But he did spend 6 hours making about 100 posts about it.

In general, the "law student" appeared not to know the facts "outside the corners of the complaint." My impression was that he didn't read the complaint's referenced docket entries to understand the bigger picture. He didn't look at the bankruptcy case at all. His biggest issue was that he focused on what was said, and not on what was not said. It was a very surface level analysis that didn't think through what the defendants were likely to do.

His surface level analysis did, however, point out the one thing that I do think might be a "mistake" - the local rules state that main paragraphs must be numbered but never mentioned whether the sub-lettering that was used to group complex topics was allowed or disallowed. If that's the worst issue with the complaint, then I think we did an OK job.

I think that trade from jim was the largest "oops" moment I've seen on Manifold.

@SteveSokolowski Manifold is unfairly biased againts AI generated content and Steve Sokolowski. I think this market will resolve NO.

@jim The whole world is biased against AI generated content. Listen to the first song and tell me whether you think the average human would have composed it better manually. Society still will be biased even when AIs are creating stuff better than Bach (which will probably be later this year at this rate.)

That's fine with me. While everyone else is biased, I'm using AI to become superhuman (as you will see tomorrow on my X feed.)

I'm curious as to how much slippage was lost in that trade. Did you just type an extra zero?

@SteveSokolowski No slippage I think, luckily! There weren't any limit orders and no one was quick enough to trade at between me buying and selling.

I have just listened to Pretend to Feel. I am not a generous reviewer but I was impressed. Lyrics feel a bit too GPTese at places. But the range on vocal techniques etc. is incredible.

2025 will be an interesting year.

I'll try to get into a YES position at 30%.

Fill me @Bayesian?

In 2024, I started generating music with AI models. I've generally found that the latest models are now capable of outputting any sound that is possible. The limitations of AI music are now generally caused by my selecting the wrong inferences (it usually takes 600-1000 runs plus editing), not understanding song structure, or not understanding what listeners like and dislike.

Interesting thesis. Music-gen capabilities overhang.

@jim You saw this with the vocals in that song. By default, AI music vocals are generally poor, and the reason most AI vocals are poor is because people think you can do it without a lot of work

There is a lot of AI-generated garbage music out there because people click "create" and go with the first song. You might be interested to know that of the entire song, only six seconds - the first part of the second verse - came from the original generation. Every single other part was generated through diffusion inpainting and extension prediction.

@jim Oh no, you're up against @KevinBlaw ! He'll be glad to fill your orders, all the way down to zero.

@SteveSokolowski

Society still will be biased even when AIs are creating stuff better than Bach (which will probably be later this year at this rate.)

lmfao...no wonder your slop sucks